President Donald Trump’s net approval rating in the Midwest fell five points in a month as his national disapproval hit a record high for his second term in Emerson College’s series of polls.
It comes as Republican candidates in crucial U.S. Senate elections face rural anger over fuel costs, the war in Iran and a beef import policy that some livestock producers oppose.
Emerson’s September survey found that the Iran conflict, jobs and tariff policy were voters’ top considerations when choosing a midterm candidate, with voters in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and Ohio perhaps determining whether regional discontent with Trump would become a broader issue for the Republican Party.
Ashley Hinson, a Trump-backed Iowa Republican, opposed increased beef imports and called for an end to the war in Iran while running for an open Senate seat.
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle previously said News week that the 2024 election was the “ultimate poll,” claiming that nearly 80 million Americans supported Donald Trump’s agenda.
Ingle said the president has already made “historic progress” on jobs, inflation and housing affordability, and said more results will emerge as his policies take effect.
News week contacted the White House by email for further comment Friday morning.
What you need to know
Trump won Iowa, Kansas and Ohio in 2024, while Michigan was hotly contested, making any weakening in the region politically significant.
Emerson’s numbers for August show Trump had 43% approval and 52% disapproval among likely Midwestern voters, giving him a net rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) of -9.
By September, the approval rating had fallen to 42 percent while the disapproval rate stood at 56 percent. This widened its regional deficit to -14 points.
The rise of opposition, rather than a large-scale loss of support, was responsible for much of the movement.
However, because the Midwest is a regional subset of each national poll, its sample is smaller and has a wider credibility interval than the survey as a whole. This change must therefore be treated as a warning signal rather than as definitive proof of sustainable development.
Trump’s disapproval rating hits record high
The regional result follows the national trend.
Emerson’s September poll puts Trump at 39% approval and 58% disapproval, leaving him 19 points underwater.
Disapproval was the highest Emerson had recorded in his second term, while approval matched the lowest it first reached in May.
The August and September surveys covered 1,000 likely voters and had margins of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for their full national samples. The August fieldwork took place from August 16 to 17, while the last survey was carried out from September 21 to 22.
Respondents were contacted through probability panels using Internet-based text interviews, with results weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region.
Rural pressures reach the countryside
The political tension is clearest in Iowa, where Hinson and Democratic Rep. Josh Turek are competing to succeed outgoing Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
Hinson, a three-term House member, called Trump’s decision to increase beef imports to combat rising prices a “bad idea.” The dispute has particular resonance in a state with a large beef industry, where producers may worry that increased foreign supply could lower the prices they receive.
Turek, a Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball, presents Democrats with a candidate whose biography extends beyond party politics.
The polls have produced different leaders, underscoring the competitiveness of the race: a late August Emerson poll had Hinson leading by 5 points, while Turek was seen more favorably in YouGov (45 percent to 43 percent) and Marist (50 percent to 42 percent) polls earlier this month.
Concerns about fuel prices
Fuel prices have added another point of separation. Hinson said Iowans should not have to pay more “at the pump or checkout” because of the war in Iran, calling for gas tax relief, a pause in diesel exports and a “successful and immediate” end to the conflict.
Farmers use diesel to plant, harvest and move their crops, while transportation companies move goods long distances. The rise in fuel prices can therefore enter the lives of voters through several doors at the same time.
Emerson found that 41 percent of national voters cited the economy as their top concern. The Iran war, jobs and tariff policy received the highest marks among the issues considered in the midterms. The poll doesn’t show whether those concerns explain Trump’s decline in the Midwest.
Midwest Senate races put Republicans on alert
Kansas is the most unexpected pressure point.
Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton held 45 percent, compared to Republican Sen. Roger Marshall’s 43 percent in a September Emerson poll, an unusually close result in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in decades.
The Michigan contest pits Democratic physician and former Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers.
Having narrowly lost a Senate race in 2024, Rogers entered this campaign with statewide experience, but Emerson found the candidates separated by just two points, with El-Sayed leading 48 percent to 46 percent in a mid-September poll.
Ohio features a contest between two politicians who have previously served in the Senate.
Republican Jon Husted, appointed to the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance, faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who represented the state for 18 years before losing in 2024.
Husted called for an end to the war in Iran and suggested Ohio consider temporarily suspending its gas tax.
The average price of regular gasoline in the state rose from $2.76 per gallon in February to about $4.48 for the week of Sept. 21, according to figures cited by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Together, these races make the Midwest’s endorsement shift more than a regional curiosity.
Republicans don’t need every disaffected voter to defect. In a close competition, reduced enthusiasm, lower turnout, or modest movement among independents may be enough to count.
News weekReporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: John Fitzpatrick and Anthony Murray.
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