Early voting in New York declines compared to 2025, but increases in majority-black districts

The Mamdani hump did not extend until 2026.

A year ago, a record number of New Yorkers voted early, fueled by an increase in the number of young people and first-time voters, boosted by Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral campaign.

This year, the numbers tell a different story. Early voting in New York fell about 6% from last year’s sharp increase. This drop is due to the low participation rate of first voters aged 18 to 24, since 15,000 fewer young people showed up to vote in advance.

Analysts say these numbers bode well for Democrats, who voted early seven times more than Republicans in New York. Early voter turnout among Democrats fell 3% from last year, but among Republicans fell even more, down 15%.

Gov. Kathy Hochul, who hopes to withstand a challenge from Republican Bruce Blakeman, has campaigned aggressively in the five boroughs, particularly during the nine days of early voting, making multiple appearances with Mamdani to try to enliven the electorate that sent him to office. But some of the declines in early voting turnout in the city have been in parts of the city where Mamdani outperformed last year.

Brooklyn neighborhoods considered part of the Commie Corridor saw the largest declines in voter turnout. Assembly District 53, which includes East Williamsburg and Bushwick, saw a 34% drop in early voter turnout

“No one is Mamdani,” said political scientist Christina Greer of Fordham. “He has a certain level of populism, like a Donald Trump, where people are coming out for the individual.”

The districts that saw the largest increases in voter turnout compared to last year were largely majority-Black districts, consistent with a national trend that sees higher rates of early Black voter turnout across the country.

Analysts say the turnout should serve as a reminder that even as the Democratic Party expands its tent, black voters remain a crucial constituency.

“Black voters tend to be a stronghold for the Democratic Party and will continue to be so even with the rise of DSA,” said Lupe Todd-Medina, a Brooklyn-based Democratic strategist. “I won’t be surprised to see lines at the door because there are still those who want to vote on election day. »

Todd-Medina, who worked for Hochul’s 2022 campaign and for Lt. Gov. candidate Adrienne Adams’ mayoral campaign last year, said Black voters are motivated to go to the polls for people like Adams, state Attorney General Letitia James and in parts of Central Brooklyn to re-elect Rep. Hakeem Jeffries.

Jeffries could become the first black speaker of the House and first New York City speaker if Democrats win majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Turnout in Central Brooklyn’s Assembly District 58, which overlaps with Jeffries’ congressional district, saw the largest increase in early voting, with a 60% increase from 2025. The district spans the neighborhoods of East Flatbush, Canarsie and Brownsville. The district’s population is nearly 80 percent Black, according to analysis of census data by the CUNY Mapping Service at the City University of New York Graduate Center.

Southeast Queens is home to a concentration of black voters who are also disproportionately Democratic voters. Districts participated in fewer numbers last year, but have seen an increase in voter turnout so far in this election.

Assembly District 29 in Queens saw a more than 47% increase in early voting compared to last year. The district includes neighborhoods like Jamaica, Hollis and Springfield Gardens. Neighboring Assembly District 31 also saw one of the largest increases in turnout, with a 40% increase. The district includes the Queens neighborhoods of Far Rockaway, South Ozone Park and Rosedale.

Overall turnout also increased among older voters. The number of voters aged 55 and over increased by 14% compared to last year. Voters 75 and older saw a 23% increase.

Overall, early voting turnout is up statewide and citywide compared to four years ago, as voters continue to acclimate to a system that was first introduced in 2019. Statewide early voting turnout increased from 1.2 million to two million compared to 2022, and in the city from more than 432,600 voters to 690 000.

Last year’s surge in early voting continued on Election Day, with New York City seeing the highest turnout for a municipal election in more than five decades.

Greer said the Mamdani effect helped catapult socialist and left-leaning Democratic candidates who were ideologically aligned with him in the June primaries. The mayor was a strong supporter of Claire Valdez, Darializa Avila Chevalier and Brad Lander, all of whom are expected to win their congressional elections on Tuesday.

However, Greer said it might be harder to motivate left-leaning voters who view Hochul as too moderate, despite Mamdani’s support.

“There’s a certain special sauce that Mamdani has that Hochul doesn’t have, and he’s doing his part as a good Democrat to kind of say, ‘Look, we’re not the same ideologically, we have some differences, but, you know, I support this woman because she’s exponentially better than the alternative.'”

An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated the percentage decrease in voter turnout compared to last year.