After the first days of early voting in Ohio, a state that could help determine control of the Senate, there are clear signs that Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting.
So far, affiliated Democrats make up a larger share of pre-election voters than two years ago, even in the most Republican parts of the state.
At this point in 2024, Republicans had a 30 percentage point lead over Democrats in counties that voted for President Donald Trump by 20 points or more, according to data from the Ohio Secretary of State. This year, that figure is reduced to just five points.
Voters in other counties have also shifted, including in counties that voted most heavily for former Vice President Kamala Harris, where they are about 25 points more Democratic.
This is based on the latest available statewide data set, dating from after Thursday’s early voting. There is evidence from counties for which later data is available that Friday was slightly better for Republicans.
The data is just the latest sign of a positive midterm environment for Democrats as former Sen. Sherrod Brown seeks to defeat Republican Sen. Jon Husted, and it comes as a CNN poll gives Brown a six-point lead. In the race for governor, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by eight points.
So far, the overall electorate is about 27 points more Democratic than it was at the same point in 2024.
It’s important to note that while these signs line up with other data showing that Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting this year than Republicans, they are far from decisive.
Even party registration data doesn’t reveal who voters voted for, and those trends could change as Republicans in recent years have been much more likely to vote early in person or on Election Day.
Besides, it’s still very early. Ohio is about 11% of its total early voting turnout compared to 2022.
This is happening at the same time that the most Democratic areas of the state are also turning faster than the most Republican areas.
The counties that most supported Harris were at 74% of their turnout rate from the same point in 2024, while the strongest Trump counties were at 67%.
This gap is similar to what we saw in Virginia, where there is also a 7-point difference, according to data from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit advocacy groups, including information on who will vote before November.
This gap is smaller than it was at the start of the month.
This partisan difference is also apparent in other states.
Ohio voters do not select a party when registering, but the state reports party affiliation based on the primary in which the voter is participating. This is not the case in New Jersey, where voters register with a party.
Democrats had an unusually weak election in the Garden State in 2024. Former Vice President Kamala Harris beat Trump there by less than 6 points, the narrowest margin for a Democrat since 1992.
Counties that were strongest for Trump have seen the biggest partisan shifts toward Democrats in pre-election voting so far, according to Catalist data.
The distribution of voters who have returned their ballots so far in the state’s three counties that voted for Trump by 20 points or more has shifted nearly 11 points in favor of Democrats from this point in 2024.
Turnout is also more Democratic in the strongest Harris counties, but by less than two points.
In-person early voting has not yet begun in New Jersey, so these changes could also reflect Republicans continuing to move away from mail-in voting.
The Ohio data also reveals a shift in how people are voting.
Since pre-election voting began, there have been signs that in 2026 the trend of Americans abandoning mail-in voting would continue after the Covid-19 pandemic.
It’s still early in Ohio, but while in-person early voting is 72% of what it was at this point in 2024, mail-in voting is only 25%.
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