November 15, 2026, 6 a.m. ET
The rise of the El Niño phenomenon continues to make news.
The current El Niño weather phenomenon has reached the top of the intensity scale, according to a report released November 12 by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This trend is now considered “very strong” – the highest of the CPC’s four El Niño intensity categories.
Only three other recorded El Niño episodes have reached this level: 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16. Modern records of El Niño began in 1950.
The chances of a historic event surpassing previous El Niños are now around 60%, still higher than equal probability, the CCP said.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon in which the surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, causing extreme weather events around the world, including droughts in some areas and heavy rains in others.
But how long will this El Niño last? How long will its impacts on the weather be felt? And is La Niña next? USA TODAY turned to an expert for answers.
When is El Niño expected to peak?
The El Niño phenomenon is expected to peak later in 2026, or early 2027, according to Michelle L’Heureux, a physicist with the National Weather Service’s extended forecasting division. “Right now, it appears that the peak will peak during the October to December or November to January periods or ‘seasons,'” L’Heureux, who is also NOAA’s ENSO team leader, said in an email to USA TODAY. “For our purposes, a season is a three-month average that we monitor to assess the state of ENSO.”
ENSO stands for El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a general term for the entire El Niño/La Niña/neutral cycle.
How long is El Niño expected to last?
According to L’Heureux, it is expected to continue until spring: “Our latest ENSO update favors the return of neutral ENSO, with a probability of 61% during the April-June period. There is also a 38% chance that El Nino will continue during this period. »
How long will El Niño continue to disrupt global weather patterns?
The “very strong” El Niño is expected to unleash even more heat and extreme weather through 2027, according to a report released last week by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). “El Niño releases heat from the ocean and is expected to increase the risk of extreme heat, drought and heavy rains through 2027,” according to a WMO statement.
Global temperatures are also expected to reach near-record highs. El Niño typically has the greatest impact on global average temperatures in the year following its onset, the WMO said.
L’Heureux agrees, noting that “on a global scale, I would expect impacts at least until spring.” As sea surface temperatures cool in the tropical Pacific, we will still see the lagged influences of El Niño – sometimes these effects can be quite significant even as ocean temperatures cool. »
“This is because El Niño can interact with other weather features such as monsoons and jet streams, which may have different timing than the peak sea surface temperature of El Niño itself,” she explained.
Is a change to La Niña possible after the end of El Niño?
“Yes, our official outlook opens the door to La Niña development later in 2027,” L’Heureux said. “The chance of La Niña occurring is 33% between June and August 2027, which is the longest forecast horizon officially predicted by NOAA. But it is not unusual for strong El Niño events to transform into La Niña the following winter.”
La Niña is the opposite phenomenon of El Niño, marked by colder than average sea water in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
If La Niña develops and persists into next fall, it could increase the chances of an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2027, which would contrast sharply with this year’s moribund season.
El Niño is still strong and in control
Experts say El Niño will be the dominant factor in U.S. weather for the near future: “El Niño will continue to control weather patterns over the next several months,” DTN meteorologist John Baranick said in an online forecast report published Nov. 11.
How has El Niño impacted the weather in the United States so far?
The fall season featured active weather from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest, Baranick said. “Storm systems originating from the Pacific Ocean generally led to a storm track that favored these areas more than the rest of the country.”
“This is heavily influenced by El Niño,” he said. “With El Niño peaking over the next couple of months, this type of phenomenon is generally expected, although the storm track typically crosses the southern part of the country during the winter season.”
Where El Niño could have the biggest impacts in the United States this winter
- Southern Plains, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic: An active southern storm track could bring frequent rain from the Southern Plains to the Southeast and into the mid-Atlantic, AccuWeather said. “Concerns about flooding could increase in the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys as winter progresses, with rivers starting below normal potentially reaching flood levels in the spring. Some storms could also produce severe thunderstorms and tornadoes,” AccuWeather said.
- Western Mountains: Not all El Niño impacts are bad: More snow than last winter could benefit ski resorts and help replenish rivers and reservoirs as the snow melts in the spring and summer.
- Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast: Warmer conditions and below-average snowfall are forecast across much of the region, according to AccuWeather. Fewer cold spells could reduce heating demand, but significant snowstorms remain possible from late January to February.
- California: Repeated atmospheric rivers could increase the risk of flooding and landslides while dumping heavy snowfall in the Sierra Nevada. Strong storms could also produce strong winds and coastal flooding. Between storms, coastal flooding appears likely along the California coast due to already high water levels from the very strong El Niño.
Contributor: Reuters
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, specializing in weather and climate.
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