Election 2026: How Democrats could win the House, how Republicans could hold on

Districts to watch: NC-14, KY-6

Another way to estimate the possible magnitude of the November swing is to look at partisan shifts in elections held in 2025 and 2026, since Trump took office. These races include the 2025 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, other high-profile statewide elections, and several special elections for the U.S. House of Representatives.

Although Trump lost Virginia and New Jersey, other recent elections have tended to be in places that supported Trump in 2024. On average across all of these states and districts, Trump won them by an average of about 3.5 percentage points in 2024. In the 2025 and 2026 elections, however, these states and districts supported the Democratic candidate by an average of about 11 points. This represents a shift of 14.5 points in favor of the Democrats.

If Democrats were able to move the vote in every district by such a massive margin in 2026, they could win as many as 263 seats to the Republicans’ 172.

Such a change could bring into play districts like Florida’s 27th District, represented by Republican Rep. María Elvira Salazar. Florida Republicans left that district virtually unchanged when they redrew the state’s congressional map, believing that a district won by Trump by 14.6 points would be out of reach for Democrats.

But it appears the race is tightening in this district with a large Hispanic population, as polls show Latino voters across the country are turning against Trump and Republicans, with economic concerns weighing heavily on their minds. These voters played a crucial role in Trump’s coalition victory in 2024, and indications that they are shifting toward Democrats are also helping to boost the party’s competitiveness in Republican-leaning and heavily Hispanic districts in states like Texas. Salazar exceeded Trump’s margin of victory by nearly 6 percentage points in 2024, and his survival in the 2026 election may require an equally strong outperformance.

A 14.5-point national swing in favor of Democrats could also make North Carolina’s 14th District competitive. Republican Rep. Tim Moore’s district is one that North Carolina Republicans didn’t bother to change when they redrew their maps last year. Trump won the district by 15.1 points, and Moore himself won it in 2024 by 16.1 points.

Another district to watch is Kentucky’s 6th District. This open Lexington-based seat has been held by Republican Andy Barr since 2013 and was won by Trump in 2024 by 15.0 points. Barr is running for U.S. Senate this year. Both Republican and Democratic groups are spending big here, reflecting the importance of the race, as Republican Ralph Alvarado faces Democrat Zach Dembo.

The NBC News Decision Desk rates this race as a skinny Republican. In 2024, this precinct has reported nearly 90% of its votes as of 8:40 p.m. ET. If Democrats are on track for massive national change, this district could provide one of the best pieces of early evidence.

National trends do not mean every district spends the same amount

Of course, all of these scenarios assume that the partisan shift in 2026 will be the same in all constituencies. This may be true on average, but some districts will see a larger change than the national average and others a smaller change.

The demographics of a specific district can play a role in the magnitude of change. For example, if Hispanic voters swing more radically toward the Democratic Party than non-Hispanic voters, then precincts with higher concentrations of Hispanic voters will vote more favorably for Democrats than the underlying partisanship of the precinct would predict.

Mandate can also play an important role in causing a district to move more or less than the national average. In 2024, incumbent members of Congress outperformed their party’s presidential candidate by an average of 2.5 percentage points.