In an aerial view, voters wait in line on the last day of in-person early voting at the Franklin County Board of Elections on November 1 in Columbus, Ohio.
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Jon Cherry/Getty Images
It’s finally here. Election day. Today, voting officially ends.
We no longer talk about polls. Now it’s about results.
More than 59 million people have already voted. This represents almost half of the total votes cast in the last midterm elections. Democrats hold a double-digit advantage today, based on available early voting data.
But one of the biggest keys today will be how many Republicans show up at the polls. There are so many red states and districts in play, and the GOP votes overwhelmingly in person on Election Day.
Democrats are favored to win the House. They only need to flip three seats to take control, and the landscape has changed significantly, even in the last month, in favor of the Democrats.
Republicans attempted to insulate themselves with rare redistricting in the middle of the decade. But that likely won’t be enough to help the party retain the House.
In the Senate, no one can guess the outcome. Democrats must trade four seats to take control of the Senate, which was unthinkable at the start of this cycle. But strong Democratic recruits and a difficult national political environment for Republicans made it possible.
Democrats are favored to flip one seat: North Carolina. But beyond that, the races are either tosses or republicans are slight favorites. And the elections are taking place on GOP turf. Aside from Maine, all five Republican-held sweepstakes are in states Trump won by double digits in 2024.
This is why Trump traveled to so many red states before Election Day to try to flip his base. The Republicans’ main target is Michigan. If they win, the Democrats’ calculus changes.
Strong Republican turnout could limit Democrats to just one choice. Low turnout among Republican voters could result in the loss of six or seven seats – and result in Democratic control of the Senate.
There are a lot of variables on how things are going to go today. Results will start coming in at 6 p.m. ET in Kentucky and Indiana, and then it’s off to the races. And while everyone wants to know the results on election night, in many places the results won’t be known. So patience is key as states count votes in what is expected to be many close races.
It could take days. It could take weeks, but ballots are being counted and results will be available soon.
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