Oil and gas prices rose Monday after the failure of the “energy ceasefire” announced Sunday by President Donald Trump.
U.S. diesel fuel futures rose slightly in late afternoon trading, while Brent crude oil jumped 2% to nearly $108 a barrel and U.S. crude rose more than 2% to around $94.
Price pressures continued to mount just weeks before the November 3 midterm elections. Republicans face a steep climb to maintain their majority in Congress, and voters across the country cite high gas prices as a key issue affecting their votes.
The average price of diesel fuel nationwide Monday was $6.26 per gallon, nearly 80% higher than it was at the start of the year, according to AAA data.
Monday’s price hike came less than 24 hours after Trump declared a cease-fire had been reached.
“Effective immediately, there is an energy ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Both sides agree. Do not break it!” Trump wrote at Truth Social.
Shortly after the president’s arrival, Russia renewed its strikes against Ukrainian energy assets.
Deja vu for the ceasefire
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine learned of Trump’s ceasefire through the media and received no prior warning. He reiterated his position that Ukraine was open to an agreement not to target enemy energy infrastructure as long as Moscow also accepted it.
At the same time, Russia continued its “glided bomb and strikes on our energy infrastructure,” Zelensky said Monday, noting that a power plant in Kharkiv had recently been attacked.
“Ukraine proposed many de-escalation measures. Putin had only one answer to each of them: ‘niet,'” Zelensky said, using the Russian word for “no.”
The Kremlin neither confirmed nor denied Monday that it had agreed to a deal.
Trump’s announcement on Sunday closely mirrors a similar message he made in September, when he announced that “Ukraine has agreed not to meet Russian energy goals. Russia has agreed to do the same!”
Here too, Zelensky said Ukraine’s participation depended on Russia’s agreement, which was never obtained. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian strikes on other countries’ energy assets slowed in September.
Trump’s deal with Putin
The questionable ceasefire Trump declared over the weekend follows a stunning announcement Friday in which the president said Russia would supply millions of barrels of diesel “to the U.S. and global market.”
The announcement came after a phone call Friday between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that reportedly lasted more than an hour.
Trump said the deal with Putin would “immediately deliver more than 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to the U.S. and global market.” That would translate to about 2.25 million barrels of diesel, or less diesel than the United States consumes in a single day.
Additional details and logistics of the Russian plan had not yet been announced Monday.
In addition to the Russia deal, Trump has pressured his G7 allies to release more diesel fuel in recent days and lifted domestic restrictions on a variety of off-road diesel.
To clear the legal path to the diesel deal, the Treasury Department announced a six-month suspension of fuel sanctions imposed on the Kremlin in 2022 for its illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials, European allies and some U.S. lawmakers were dismayed by the deal and by the U.S. decision to unilaterally ease sanctions on Russia.
Trump defended the deal Monday, calling it “a good choice for the American people.”
Trump also said more diesel fuel would be available “in a short period of time” if Russian refineries could produce it.
Questions about Russia’s capacity
Still, experts are very skeptical that Russian diesel exports will recover significantly in the short term.
Due to Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia, refineries that produce oil, gas and diesel have suffered heavy damage.
“Reported gasoline production is down 20% from 2025 levels, while diesel production is believed to have fallen by almost 30%, prompting the government to restrict fuel exports to protect domestic supplies,” International Energy Agency analysts wrote in a September report.
For weeks, Trump has focused on the price of diesel fuel, which began to rise following the war in Iran launched by the United States and Israel in February.
In July, the escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine began to increase pressure on diesel prices.
As Ukrainian drones systematically targeted Russian energy assets, the Kremlin responded by limiting diesel exports to preserve its supply for domestic use.
Until then, Russia was one of the world’s leading exporters of refined petroleum products, including diesel fuel.
Russia announced Friday that it would lift some of its export restrictions to comply with the deal with Trump. But it was unclear how quickly this would happen.
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