The Kremlin is testing the limits of Europe.
After months of covert attacks and sabotage across the continent, leaders are warning that Moscow may be about to get bolder as it seeks to sow chaos and intimidate Ukraine’s allies.
Russian President Vladimir Putin may attempt to test NATO’s resolve to defend its members on its eastern flank or respond to attacks that fall short of all-out war, these officials say, at a time when the United States is distracted by other conflicts and considering reducing its military presence in Europe.
An assessment by the Danish Defense Intelligence Service published on Thursday warns that in the coming months, Moscow will further intensify its so-called hybrid war campaign, “with greater consequences for targeted countries than in the past.” It also assesses “a small but increasing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia.”
While Moscow has for years adopted tactics that cross the threshold of war, a series of increasingly brazen incidents in recent months have alarmed U.S. allies.
“A little panicked”
A key moment was the discovery of a Russian drone carrying explosives at an eastern German airport near a Ukrainian plane last month. Berlin formally blamed Russia for what it called a foiled attack and imposed a diplomatic freeze, although Moscow denied any involvement.
The incident appears to have changed the mindset about Russia’s growing threat in Europe, said Ed Arnold, a senior associate fellow in international security at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank. “It just shows that Putin’s risk calculations are becoming more liberal,” Arnold said. “Honestly, everyone was a little freaked out by it. »
This was followed by the unexpected visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow, during which NATO was discussed.
Incidents continued to pile up – at defense installations in Estonia, on railway networks in Poland and on the electricity grid in Germany. Many passed without clear attribution, which only intensified speculation.
All this against a backdrop of almost daily drone incursions into European airspace, fueling anxiety in eastern border towns.
In Ukraine, a passenger train was struck less than 3 kilometers from the Polish border earlier this month, an incident brushing against NATO’s gates as European diplomats were returning from kyiv on the same railway. Another train, with former CIA Director David Petraeus on board, was still at the station when the drone struck.
Days later, NATO warplanes shot down a drone that entered the airspace of Lithuania, one of the Baltic member states whose proximity to Russia analysts say could make it a prime target for the Kremlin’s next move.
What might this look like? As concern grew last week, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the Kremlin planned to launch drone and missile attacks on European countries, which it would consider accidental, to try to weaken any response.
Russia has claimed no involvement in any of the incidents and has repeatedly denied carrying out hybrid warfare or sabotage operations on NATO territory. Putin himself accused European leaders earlier this month of seeking “a war against Russia” and “scaring their populations with an imaginary threat.”
On Friday, Russian state news agency RIA published and quickly deleted an opinion piece outlining a potential scenario of a “blitzkrieg” war that Russia could wage against a NATO state, focusing specifically on the Baltics. The article was removed because it did not “comply” with editorial policy or Russian state policy, RIA said.
U.S. allies have no doubt that this general trend reflects the Kremlin’s increasingly pushing the envelope.
“With these incidents now so frequent and so brazen, it is increasingly difficult to distinguish them from actual acts of war,” said Katja Bego, a senior fellow at the Europe program at the London-based think tank Chatham House. “The Kremlin is playing with fire here: the risk of a more serious escalation, even unintentional, is very real.”
Baltic countries urge caution
We increasingly have the feeling that we must do something, but what?
Lithuania plans evacuation of elderly people and lifts ban on housing nuclear weapons. Finland has warned its citizens to mentally prepare for further sabotage attacks. France is implementing a plan to protect the country’s critical infrastructure.
Above all of this is Article 5, NATO’s collective defense clause.
For Moscow, the escalation of hybrid attacks could highlight Western divisions over how best to respond and undermine the alliance at a time when America’s commitment to such mutual defense is in question.
“I think they are trying to show Europe that they can act without consequences, and more recently, to show Europe that the United States is not going to come to their aid. It’s worrying,” said William Alberque, a former senior NATO official based in Berlin.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday and said at a news conference that the United States was concerned that the war in Ukraine could “metastasize and spread to other places…whether through a hybrid attack, through a sabotage attack, or through a misunderstanding.”
He added: “We monitor the reports carefully and we pass them on to the right people at the right levels. »
A State Department spokesperson told NBC News: “We continue to monitor Russia’s hybrid activities in Europe and work closely with our allies and partners to build resilience against the hybrid threat.” »
Despite the feeling of worry that is spreading, some in Europe advise against getting carried away.
NATO’s Baltic states have not changed their security assessment, saying there is no imminent risk of a Russian invasion while much of Moscow’s military assets are stuck in Ukraine – and struggling to make progress there.
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