Exclusive: Thousands of North Carolina ballots expected to be rejected after GOP imposes strict new rules, data shows

Thousands of midterm ballots in North Carolina are expected to be rejected due to minor technical issues after a federal court upheld strict new Republican-backed rules for mail-in voters, according to data shared exclusively with Democracy Docket.

Some Democratic strongholds are seeing rejection rates as high as 7 to 8 percent, according to the data.

The results offer a particularly stark example of how Republican-backed voting restrictions, particularly those targeting mail-in ballots, can directly disenfranchise large numbers of eligible voters.

A federal judge ruled Monday night to uphold North Carolina’s strict mail-in voting rules championed by the GOP, on the eve of the state’s absentee ballot application deadline.

Working with the Southern Coalition for Social Justice, Common Cause North Carolina compiled data from 27 of the state’s 100 counties, using absentee review monitors – daily voters and volunteer advocates – as well as attorneys.

The data reveals that ballots are being rejected at a rate of about 3% so far as a result of the new GOP-backed rules.

Some of these rejections probably weren’t due to the new rules: Ballots can be rejected for many reasons. But the total rejection rate of 3% is double the rejection rate the state recorded in its 2022 elections, strongly suggesting the new rules are having a major impact.

In Guilford County, more than 2 percent of all ballots received over the past three weeks were rejected solely because voters violated one of the new rules backed by the Republican Party by not properly sealing the inner envelope of their ballot, according to figures shared with Democracy Docket. The figure is 2.5 percent for Wake County, as one election board member wrote online, and for Durham County, according to data from Common Cause NC.

If 3% of mail-in ballots statewide ended up being rejected, that would result in about 3,942 ballots being rejected, Democracy Docket calculated.

That figure is based on the number of mail-in ballots — about 188,000 — cast in 2022, the final midterm year, reduced by 30% due to a decrease in mail-in ballots requested this year.

“If trends continue, we’re looking at thousands of votes that could be wasted because of these new guidelines,” Sailor Jones, North Carolina director of Common Cause, told Democracy Docket.

These voters would be disenfranchised unless they came back to cure them – which few voters end up doing.

Under the new rules, voters must place their ballot in an inner envelope and seal it. This envelope is then placed in an outer envelope. A separate new rule limits who can help voters vote to “next of kin.”

The envelope sealing requirement has received the most attention because voters, particularly those with limited mobility, may have difficulty moving their ballot into the small envelope container, leading to the inner envelope remaining unsealed. Advocates say it’s this requirement that likely leads to higher denial rates.

“It’s hard to see this as anything other than a tactic to make voting more difficult at a time when those most affected are older voters, voters with disabilities, and voters who historically have relied on mail-in ballots to vote,” Jones said.

In larger counties, like Mecklenburg and Forsyth — both Democratic strongholds — the rejection rate reaches 7 to 8 percent, according to the data. But rejection rates are also high in some smaller counties. In Alexander, one of the state’s least populated counties, 6.67% of all ballots were spoiled in the Oct. 6 count.

For Jones, the rules are part of a “systematic effort to make voting by mail more difficult.”

And some people are choosing not to vote by mail this year, as voters, advocates and election officials fear votes will be wasted. Mail-in ballot requests fell 32% from this time of year in 2022, according to Tuesday’s data.

The North Carolina State Board of Elections, controlled since last year by the Republican Party, celebrated Monday’s decision.

In a statement, Executive Director Sam Hayes, a former Republican Party aide to a top state lawmaker, said the opinion “does not change how they (voters) vote or the instructions they have already received.”

Indeed, the board already changed the way voters cast ballots in the Sept. 4 vote to impose the rules the same morning the state’s first mail-in ballots were sent out, leaving election workers and voters scrambling.

In his ruling on the rules challenge, U.S. District Judge Thomas Schroeder, a George W. Bush appointee, chastised the plaintiffs* for delaying the trial.

“Additionally, concerns related to election integrity and the chain of custody of mail-in ballots, which have been found to be susceptible to fraud and tampering, support the interests of the state,” Schroeder concluded.

Schroeder, who said it is too late to change election rules while voting is underway, wrote that voters should still be able to ensure their ballots are counted if they follow the cure process or if a non-curable deficiency is discovered in time.

Voters wishing to vote by mail must request a ballot by 5 p.m. Tuesday.

*The Elias Law Group (ELG) represents the plaintiffs in this matter. Marc Elias, president of ELG, is the founder of Democracy Docket.