Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high
Business

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

By adminvoxa
October 14, 2026 6 Min Read
Comments Off on Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

The affordability crisis has eased in markets where housing prices have fallen in recent years and hourly wages have risen, but has worsened in others.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Existing single-family home sales in September continued to hit the bottom of the four-year dumpster. Sales in September fell 1.9% from last year’s already declining levels, the second consecutive month of year-over-year declines, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.64 million sales, according to data released today by the National Association of Realtors.

On a monthly basis, sales increased compared to the downwardly revised August (revised downward to the lowest since September 2024).

Sales were down 24% compared to September 2019, 34% compared to September 2021, 12% compared to September 2009 during the housing crisis and 2% compared to 30 years ago in September 1996.

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

Supply of single-family homes, at 4.6 months in September, this is the highest September level since September 2015 (4.8 months).

Offer is based on inventory and sales – the amount of inventory on hand at the end of the month compared to sales during the month.

The stacked chart shows 2026 in red with big red squares, 2025 with the big red line, and 2024 with the dotted red line. Supply has increased year over year, every year, since the 2021 low point (2.4 months, brown line at bottom):

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

Condo and cooperative sales fell 2.8% in September compared to August, seasonally adjusted, to reach an annual rate of 350,000, a record level in data that only goes back to the end of 2011.

Compared to last year’s already collapsed levels, sales fell a further 5.4%. Compared to September 2019, sales collapsed by 41%. Compared to September 2012, the first month of September according to the data, sales collapsed by 38%.

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

Supply of condos at 6.5 months, it was the same as September 2025, and both set a record for September in NAR data which for condos dates back to 2012.

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

Sales by region.

South, The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales increased in September from August’s downwardly revised sales of 1,860,000 homes to a year-over-year decline, following August’s year-over-year gain.

Compared to September in previous years:

  • 2025: -0.5% (over one year)
  • 2024: +6.9%
  • 2023: +2.2%
  • 2022: -9.7%
  • 2019: -18.8%
  • 2018: -13.5%

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

In the West, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales increased from downwardly revised sales in August to 730,000 homes. And the year-over-year decline got worse.

Compared to September in previous years:

  • 2025: -5.2% (over one year)
  • 2024: -5.2%
  • 2023: +1.4%
  • 2022: -17.0%
  • 2019: -37.1%
  • 2018: -32.4%

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

In the Midwest, the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate was 930,000 homes, the same as August’s downwardly revised level. This shifted the year-over-year gain in August (+2.1% before downward revision) into a year-over-year decline in September (-2.1%).

Compared to September in previous years:

  • 2025: -2.1% (year-on-year)
  • 2024: +1.1%
  • 2023: -2.1%
  • 2022: -18.4%
  • 2019: -27.9%
  • 2018: -27.3%

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

In the North-East, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales decreased by 2.1%, to 470,000 homes.

Compared to September in previous years:

  • 2025: -4.1% (year-on-year)
  • 2024: 0%
  • 2023: -4.1%
  • 2022: -21.7%
  • 2019: -32.9%
  • 2018: -30.9%

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

Mortgage rates were higher, but not historically high.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.40% last week, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly measure, the highest since the six-week period between early October and mid-November 2023.

From July to the end of September, when transactions were completed and resulted in sales closing at the end of September, mortgage rates were still between 6.4% and 7.0%. The effects of rising mortgage rates in October did not impact sales closed in September, reported today. That remains to come.

In the historical context of five decades, mortgage rates are not high. But property prices are high after the price explosion between mid-2020 and mid-2022. This is the culprit of the affordability crisis. And inflation is high.

Mortgage rates follow long-term Treasury yields, but are higher and the gap between them varies over time.

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

The national median price of single-family homes decreased seasonally to $422,700 in September, not seasonally adjusted. Over one year, it is up 1.2%.

The national “affordability crisis” was caused by a 40% explosion in the national median price in the two years to mid-2022, which came on top of already high prices.

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

Wage increases ease affordability crisis. Since September 2022, over those four years, the average hourly wage has increased much faster than the national median price of single-family homes, very slowly, over many years, alleviating the affordability crisis.

Over the four years since September 2022:

  • National median price of single-family homes: +8.5%
  • Average hourly wage: +16.1%
  • Consumer price index (CPI): +12.7% (until August).

Local prices differ significantly.

For people buying or selling a home, the national median price doesn’t matter. What matters are the prices in their local markets.

In some of these markets, the affordability crisis has eased significantly thanks to a combination of rising wages and a sharp fall in house prices, for example:

Prices of single-family homes in cities of:

  • Austin, TX: -26%
  • Oakland, California: -23%
  • Cape Coral, Florida: -22%
  • New Orleans, LA: -20%

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

But in other cities, single-family home prices continued to reach new highs and deepened the affordability crisis.

The biggest cities with new highs and biggest year-over-year gains:

  • Toledo: +6.0%
  • Chicago: +5.6%
  • Rochester: +4.6%
  • New York: +4.4%.

The national median price of condos and cooperatives declined along seasonal lines to $363,000 in September. Over one year, it is up 1.2%.

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

But condo prices have fallen in many cities, and the affordability crisis has eased significantly in those cities. In some of these cities, condo prices have fallen below their 2006 peaks (see our report: Oh My, Condo Prices Dropped 15% to 34% in 34 Largest Markets).

  • Cape Coral, Florida: -34%
  • Oakland, California: -32%
  • St. Petersburg, Florida: -30%
  • Austin, TX: -28%
  • Fort Myers, Florida: -27%
  • Sarasota County, Florida: -24%
  • Garland, TX: -22%
  • Tampa, Florida: -22%.

The national median condo price has no relevance to condo buyers and sellers anywhere.

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

In case you missed it: Home sellers are grappling with reality: Listing prices are falling in Florida, California, Texas and, suddenly, even New York

Do you like reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can make a donation. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how:

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

Existing single-family home sales are hitting the bottom of a 4-year dumpster, supply is at an 11-year high. Condo sales at an all-time high and supply at an all-time high

Gn bussni

Post Views: 2
Author

adminvoxa

Follow Me
Other Articles