Kevin Warsh, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, during a news conference following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in Washington, DC, U.S., Wednesday, September 16, 2026.
Daniel Heuer | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday is likely to be without suspense, with markets expecting the central bank to remain unchanged even if inflation remains well above target.
Markets are pricing in a less than 10% chance that the Federal Interest Rate Setting Committee will follow up its quarter-percentage-point hike in September with another increase, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Assuming that sentiment is correct, that will leave the Fed’s benchmark interest rate in a range between 3.75% and 4% — and shift investors’ attention to Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and the cues he chooses to provide at his post-meeting news conference.
Traders expect the Fed to follow up October’s jump with a hike at its next meeting in December.
With no update to the Fed’s rate forecast dot plot or summary of economic projections scheduled for this meeting, there will be fewer details on how officials view current conditions and the future direction of monetary policy.
Some observers believe there could be differences of opinion over the decision to continue the project. Regional chairs Beth Hammack of Cleveland and Lorie Logan of Dallas may not vote, as may Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis. Each chose to vote against a hold in July.
The Fed’s decision comes less than a week before a crucial midterm election in which the balance of power in Congress hangs in the balance. While Fed officials insist that political considerations play no role in their decisions, some economists have speculated that officials would prefer to avoid raising rates as the election approaches.
Gn bussni
