Control of the Senate is at stake, with seven key elections still within the margin of error, giving both parties a path to the majority in 2027.
But given the dismal national political environment for Republicans — and the fact that Democrats have multiple scenarios to get the four seats they need to flip the House (of the seven Toss Up seats, six are held by Republicans) — we view Democrats as slight favorites.
We’re keeping seven races in our Toss Up category as of today because, frankly, we don’t know how they will play out in the final days of the election. And after speaking with dozens of plugged-in strategists on both sides of the aisle who follow the races exhaustively, they don’t either. However, in our articles for each state below, we describe the trend of these races, which supports our belief that Democrats are better positioned to win the majority than Republicans are to maintain it.
Some polls have tightened in recent weeks as voters return
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