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Weeks before Election Day, Democratic engagement and positive ratings give Democrat James Talarico a razor-thin advantage over Republican Ken Paxton in what is shaping up, so far, to be a photo finish for the Lone Star State’s U.S. Senate seat.
This analysis, released Thursday, is for likely Texas voters unless otherwise noted.
Talarico enjoys a net positive personal rating of 8 points (52% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable), while Paxton’s is underwater by 18 points (40% vs. 58%). Republicans are six times more likely to have an unfavorable view of Paxton (32%) than Democrats of Talarico (5%).
The GOP also has an enthusiasm deficit. More MAGA than non-MAGA Republicans are extremely interested in the midterm elections (64% vs. 50%) and are certain they will vote (76% vs. 65%). In contrast, two-thirds of DSA and non-DSA Democrats are extremely interested, and nearly three-quarters of both groups are certain to vote.
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Overall, Texas voters are likely split on control of the Senate: 49% prefer a Democratic Senate while 50% favor a Republican upper chamber. Eight percent of self-identified Republicans prefer Democrats in office compared to 1% of Democrats who choose the Republican Party.
All of this gives Talarico a slight 2-point advantage over Paxton (51-49%) in the first Fox News poll among likely Texas voters (so no comparison is available). These comparison results are within the margin of sampling error.
Among the largest sample of registered voters, Talarico’s advantage widens to 7 points (just outside the margin of error). This represents an increase from the 3 point advantage recorded in July.
GOP ambivalence is also reflected in Senate preferences, as non-MAGA Republicans are more than five times more likely to support Talarico than their MAGA counterparts (22% vs. 4%). This crossover echoes the continuing divisions of the GOP primary and runoff: 20% of likely voters who supported incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the March primary support Talarico.
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100% of DSA Democrats and 98% of non-DSA Democrats support Talarico, and slightly more of his supporters are certain of their support (89%) than those of Paxton (85%).
Additionally, Talarico also enjoys strong support from black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%), and voters under 35 (62%).
Paxton’s top groups are white evangelical Christians (74%), white men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%), and voters aged 65 and older (55%).
Both candidates face ideological concerns. About an equal number of people are concerned. Talarico is too liberal on these issues (53% concerned) and Paxton is too close to President Trump (51%).
In 2024, President Donald Trump won Texas by nearly 14 percentage points. Today, his job evaluation is underperforming by 11 points: 44% approve versus 55% disapprove. Fifteen percent of those who disapprove still support Paxton, compared to 9% of Trump approvers who support Talarico.
Economic difficulties continue to dominate the discourse. Seven in 10 Texans say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote, and that’s another issue for Republicans, as twice as many voters say they’re behind financially (35%) than ahead (16%). Those behind Talarico by 32 points, while those ahead favor Paxton by 48 points. Those who remain steady (48%), the largest group, narrowly support Paxton by 3 points.
Nearly half say Trump (48%) and immigration (47%) will be extremely important to their vote, while a third say the same about artificial intelligence technology (34%).
Talarico holds a wide lead among those who believe the cost of living (Talarico +19), artificial intelligence (+18) and Trump (+6) will be extremely important to their Senate vote, while immigration-focused voters support Paxton (+20).
In the race for governor, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott’s positive ratings give him an edge over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. The three-time incumbent has a 52-47% advantage over the Texas House representative.
More than half, 52 percent, approve of Abbott’s work as governor, and that same proportion supports him in the race. 47% of them disapprove of him, the same number who support Hinojosa.
Abbott fares better than Paxton because he has slightly higher support among men, Republicans and moderates. Women are more evenly distributed in the gubernatorial race.
CLICK HERE FOR CROSSED POINTS AND TOP LINE
Abbott also has a modest crossover advantage: 10% of Talarico supporters support Abbott for governor, while only 3% of Paxton supporters do the same for Hinojosa.
“Texas Democrats will be walking on broken glass to vote against Trump. So the question is whether the average Republican will vote in an election without Trump and whether the Senate race will feature a controversial Republican candidate,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who leads the Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson.
“Ironically, Paxton may owe his political life to Abbott, who is doing most of the work getting Republicans out of the vote.”
Conducted September 24-28, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,203 registered voters in Texas, randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (127) and cell phones (789) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (287). Results based on the sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points, and for the subsample of 881 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points.
Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling errors, the wording and order of questions can influence the results. Sources for developing target weights include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. Weights are typically applied to the age, race, education, and region variables to ensure that respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Likely Voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that draws on past voting history, interest in the current election, intent to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity, and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
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