Despite losing to Utah last weekend, no. 10 BYU Cougars appear to control their own College Football Playoff destiny. While a win doesn’t guarantee a playoff spot – the committee has proven it will make big changes to its rankings every week – BYU will have a great chance of making the playoffs if it wins. The Cougars host a dangerous Baylor team on Saturday that has played very well since Dave Aranda was fired.
Here’s what ESPN FPI says about BYU-Baylor and the rest of the BYU program.
ESPN FPI gives BYU a 68.5% chance of beating Baylor at home. According to FPI, Baylor is the toughest game remaining on BYU’s schedule. If BYU can avoid a disappointment after an emotional loss to rival Utah, the Cougars will be in excellent position to win.
Odds of winning
BYU no longer controls its own destiny in the Big 12 title game. To reach the title game, BYU will have to win. To make the College Football Playoff, BYU will need to win. If winning is the only path to BYU’s goals, what are the odds that BYU will prevail? According to FPI, BYU has a 42% chance of winning and finishing the regular season 10-2. If BYU beats Baylor, its odds of winning will jump to 61%. There’s a lot going on on BYU-Baylor on Saturday.
The latest news on the Big 12 title race
BYU’s chances of winning the Big 12 decreased significantly after losing to Utah. To make the Big 12 title game, BYU must win, and both Texas Tech and Houston need to lose at least one more game. Because Houston owns most of the tiebreakers against BYU, Houston has the same chance of winning the Big 12 as BYU. Utah is the clear favorite with a 56% chance of winning the league.
Oklahoma State, Arizona and Baylor are also still in the running for the conference title. All three of these schools would have to win to get to Arlington. Baylor is an interesting case. The Bears could kick down the door and force themselves into the conference championship game in the coming weeks. They face title contenders BYU, Texas Tech and Houston to close out the season.
College Football Playoffs
Even though BYU only has an 8% chance of winning the Big 12, it has a 41% chance of advancing to the CFP. If that 41% number sounds familiar, remember what are BYU’s chances of winning? 42%. In other words, FPI believes that if BYU wins, it will qualify for the College Football Playoff.
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