The Dodgers’ bid for a three-peat ended decisively, as they were swept by the Brewers a year after handing Milwaukee the same fate in the NLCS. As they turn their attention to 2027, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters (including The Athletic’s Katie Woo) that this offseason will be business as usual from a financial standpoint — at least pending the possibility of an overhaul of the sport’s economic structure in the next collective bargaining agreement.
No team has come close to the Dodgers’ spending in recent years. There was no real fear of a slowdown until reports emerged this summer that investments and loans made by insurance companies owned by Chairman Mark Walter were the subject of federal investigations. Walter sold his interests in a few other sports franchises, including the Lakers. Dodgers CEO Stan Kasten unequivocally stated in August that Walter had no plans to sell the baseball franchise. Kasten also downplayed the idea that non-baseball activities could lead to a reduction in the team’s payroll, saying at the time that “the Dodgers are doing pretty well.”
Friedman’s comments strike the same chord. “We spoke to Mark after we lost, and he was obviously very disappointed,” he told reporters on Wednesday. “But a lot of his focus was: OK, what can we do? What are our plans? What are our thoughts for the offseason? And our brains weren’t quite there yet, but a lot of his focus was how do we put ourselves in the best position to win in ’27?”
The bigger question is whether we should seriously strive to conserve Tarik Skubal. He is the clear No. 1 free agent and could hold a contract that more than triples the next largest contract signed this winter. Skubal and agent Scott Boras should aim to break records for both overall guarantee per pitcher ($325 million) and average annual value ($43.333 million) — likely by significant margins. There’s a good chance Skubal becomes the game’s first $400 million-plus pitcher.
The Dodgers don’t need Skubal necessarily. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, Shohei Ohtani and a combination of Justin Wrobleski, Emmet Sheehan And Pierre Gavin would already constitute one of the best rotations in the game. Of course, that didn’t stop Los Angeles from winning the bidding on the trade front this summer. Their combination of resources and roster strength means they can afford to pursue impact talent heading into October. That’s also why they’re happy to answer questions about injuries and regular season workload with Snell and Glasnow, because their main goal is to build the most talented pitching staff possible for the postseason.
Skubal is probably the only true elite talent in an otherwise mediocre class. There is a high volume of mid-level starting pitchers, but the Dodgers’ relative lack of concern with the regular season means they have devalued lower-upside inning-eaters. They’re also mostly stuck on the position player side, so they don’t need to be particularly aggressive in a question mark-laden hitting class.
Shohei Ohtani, Bets on Mookie, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, Will Smith, Max Muncy And Andy Pages essentially seven places in the lineup assured. The Dodgers should probably look to move on from Teoscar Hernández in the final season of his three-year contract, although they would sign the top prospect Jose De Paula in left field if that happens. A combination of Tommy Edman, Alex Freeland And Hyeseong Kim looks good at second base, although that’s the position that would be a little easier to improve if they wanted to swing at another big bat (e.g. Brandon Lowe).
If the Dodgers let Skubal go, it could be a relatively quiet offseason, mainly because they don’t have many pressing needs. The main exception would be in the bullpen with impending free agency from Alex Vesia And Evan Phillips – that it stands to reason that they would both like to return for two or three year contracts.
As shown on MLBTR’s Payroll Tracker (via contributor Ethan Hullihen), the Dodgers finished this season with a competitive tax balance estimate around $430.7 million. That’s estimated to be around $388 million for next year, including projected salaries for a relatively light arbitration class. No team would need to cut spending more than Los Angeles if MLB were able to convince the Players Association to change a salary cap. This would surely involve a grace period of several years for the biggest spenders to bring payrolls down to acceptable levels.
Gn sports
