Gears of War: E-Day has sold 230,000 copies since its early access launch on October 1 and its full release on October 6. Steam represents 168,000, Xbox (console and PC) selling 62,000. But there is more to this story, since Xbox represents the bulk of revenue.
Electronic day is the best rated Gears game for almost two decades (and the best ever made, in my opinion). The Coalition has made a splash here (it’s currently in my top 10 for the year). Despite the undeniable quality of E-Day, it is a very gentle result. And it really depends on the business model.
On Xbox, Game Pass cannibalizes a large portion of premium revenue. Our estimates show that 1.7 million people accessed Electronic day via their subscription rather than a copy. But Xbox has it both ways – or at least half of it – via its Premium Edition Game Pass upgrade.
Game Pass subscribers could pay $30 (or local equivalent) for up to five days of early access starting October 1. Our estimates show that of the 1.7 million who accessed Electronic day via Game Pass, 722K paid for the upgrade. Between the review embargo lifting on October 1 and the full release, Electronic day managed to move another 250,000 upgrades out of early access – no doubt helped by the campaign’s rave reviews.
So despite selling far fewer copies on Steam, Xbox accounts for almost three-quarters of the revenue (around $26 million of $37 million, compared to around $11 million on Steam). So “230,000 copies” is a price lower than the paying public. Including 722,000 upgrades, almost 950,000 people actually paid something for Electronic day.
While Electronic day is a sublime game, these are sweet numbers for a flagship product when Xbox seriously needs income gains. Electronic day sold 62,000 copies on Xbox compared to 722,000 Premium upgrades, so for every copy sold on Xbox, almost 12 Game Pass upgrades were sold. The $70 premium SKU is – functionally – dead on Xbox.
Normally, you can’t see what a Game Pass player would have paid, because the game is right there in the subscription. But the $30 upgrade estimate for early access shows that 722,000 people have demonstrated that they would spend real money on this game.
In a world without Game Pass from day one, many of these people would have purchased Electronic day at $70. They paid $30 for five days early access to something that doesn’t belong to them. Indeed, Xbox charges its most valuable customers the least, based on a hangover from a proven strategy from a previous administration.
These 722,000 willing-to-pay players generated approximately $21.7 million from the upgrade. If three-quarters of this group – mostly American and European – bought Electronic day frankly, it represents almost 40 million dollars.
Of course, Game Pass do generate significant recurring revenue, and Electronic day brings added value to hundreds of thousands of subscribers. However, Game Pass is no longer growing, so Xbox is at a crossroads.
Xbox is reportedly looking to create a Netflix and incorporate an ad-supported tier to further complement it. But that will only set a new floor, and executives keep telling us that the priority now is revenue growth, which is subscriber-speak for ARPU.
Xbox has already removed Call of Duty from day one, the Game Pass after the first day, the inclusion has increased its sales, with new Cod titles are now arriving on the service about a year late. We know that some Microsoft executives think the service downright devalues games, and rumors (which Microsoft has dismissed so far, to be fair) suggest that day one releases could be removed from Game Pass.
When such a well-reviewed game does this smoothly on its original platform, the model – not the game – is called into question.
Looking Electronic dayAmong Xbox gamers, most have already played the franchise (86% have played Speeds 576% Gears 4), and every game on the crossover list is either a shooter or a title from an Xbox-owned studio (although Game Pass inflates these numbers, of course, we’ll get to that later):
As for what else Xbox Electronic day the players played this monththe first three are Fortnite (16%), Roblox (7%), and Call of Duty (6%). Another 5% played Minecraft II Dungeonswhich is also on Game Pass and launched a few days before Gears‘early access date. Many Game Pass players are happy to discover most of the major new features.
On Steam, the best crossover games are also mostly shooting games (a few more games coded on PC), notably Marine Space 2itself strongly inspired by Gears:
Looking at what Electronic dayThis month’s Steam players love showing off who they are – because subscriptions don’t skew the data. The first three are Watch dogs (13%), Dead end (12%), and CS2 (10%), so you have the restless crowd of shooters discovering the new thing. A little further down are Helldiverse 2 And Marine Space 2your PVE co-op shooter players who will feel right at home in Horde mode.
Looking at the distribution of playing time on our platform, Electronic day players on Steam are playing – relatively speaking – longer:
54% of Electronic day Xbox gamers played for five hours or less (compared to 32% on Steam)
19% of Xbox players played for more than 15 hours (compared to 33% on Steam)
14% of Xbox players played for more than 20 hours (22% on Steam)
The absolute number of people playing for over 15, 20, and 50 hours is, of course, greater on Xbox, thanks to the large number of people who came via Game Pass (upgrades included).
None of this is alarming. Game Pass is the reason playtime on Xbox is lower, because when a game is free, people try it and bounce without even spending an hour on it (17% less than an hour on Xbox vs. 6% on Steam).
The subscription brings tourists alongside those engaged, lowering the average even when the game is excellent (but also perhaps winning over the uninitiated). This is standard on all titles included in the subscription, also on PS Plus. Forza Horizon 6for example, saw 11% of its Xbox players bounce in less than an hour, compared to just 2% on Steam.
So there we have it. Gears of War: E-Day is an incredible game whose revenue has been stifled by the inclusion and exclusivity of subscriptions. It’s the highest-rated entry in the series in a decade and a half, but it still turned into one of the sweetest flagship launches of the year, not because gamers didn’t want it, but because Xbox’s own storefront gave its most willing buyers a reason not to pay.
Which leaves Xbox at a crossroads. Will it continue to do Gears games where the financial returns are so slim and the margins so low? And if so, will the next one come to Game Pass on day one? Cod Is this the case now, or even on PlayStation?
I think it should. Alright, let’s get back to Electronic day In my opinion!
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(Alinea Analytics offers the most accurate PC and console estimates in the industry. Game creators use our platform to understand their audience, keep an eye on the competition, monitor sales trends, and spot new opportunities. We provide game studios and financial institutions with accurate data and the confidence to make smarter, data-driven decisions. Want to talk all things gaming market data? We’d love to chat!)
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