According to reports from Summer Game Festivalan almost finished PS5 version of Gears of War: E-Day exists somewhere in the Coalition Development office.
The game was planned for release on Sony’s console in various regions, and Microsoft accidentally subverted the message by releasing an unedited version of the third-person shooter’s trailer, including a PlayStation logo at the end.
But under new management, the Redmond firm has decided to withdraw from the PS5, and bring back console exclusives.
Early estimates for Gears of War: E-Day suggest that it may not have the impact the manufacturer expected.
Analyst Rhys Elliott from Alinea published some interesting data this weekend: the critically acclaimed release only sold 230,000 copies on Steam (168,000) and Xbox Series X|S (62,000).
It is important to point out, as always, that the research group’s methodology is unclear. There is still some debate about the reliability of his numbers, although some reliable sources say they tend to be in the right range.
The reality, however, is that even if it is grossly miscalculated, the numbers will likely still seem incredibly low.
There East context though.
Alinea estimates that 1.7 million people started the game via Xbox Game Passwith approximately 722,000 people paying $30 for advanced access. But as Elliott points out, this means that “Xbox is, in effect, charging its most valuable customers the least.”
The analytics company predicts that the game generated around $37 million in revenue, which is likely a drop in the bucket over a seven-year development cycle. Obviously, we don’t know what Microsoft’s expectations are for the title.
It’s also worth pointing out that Xbox Game Pass subscribers technically pay for access to this title through their monthly subscription, although it’s not entirely clear how that revenue is split between different games and studios.
Microsoft’s decision to remove Call of Duty from day one of subscription implies that the business model isn’t really working as expected.
So the elephant in the room here is this almost finished PS5 version, which probably would have had some demand.
While Xbox would have had to pay Sony’s 30% licensing fee to flog the shooter on the PS StoreIt’s been proven that PS5 owners are generally more willing to pay full price for games than gamers on Microsoft’s machine.
Personally, I’m not sure how Gears of War: E-Day will perform on PS5; There’s an argument that many outdated Xbox games moved to PlayStation and may have reclaimed the title.
But it’s also a busy release schedule, and gamers’ time and money are spread across a variety of different titles. Last year’s Gears of War Reloaded is expected to have sold around 700,000 units on Sony’s console, despite being a remaster of a remaster of a 2006 game.
It could be argued that these estimates reflect a franchise on a downward trajectory. The game has received plenty of rave reviews – including a rare 10/10 from our friends at Pure Xbox – but if those numbers are correct, the market doesn’t seem to be responding to them.
Microsoft, for the record, has not issued a statement to counter Alinea Analytics’ estimates. However, he always maintained that Gears of War: E-Day would remain an Xbox console exclusive.
It will be interesting to see if these numbers, if accurate, will test his resolve.
Gn tech
