You know it’s a great weekend of college football ahead so you’ll be alerted when the five teams included this week face opponents of equal – or slightly lesser – talent.
That’s what happens when Week 10 produces more than half a dozen “good versus good” matchups following the first College Football Playoff Rankings exit of the season. From there, expect big swings every Tuesday night until Selection Sunday as the committee decides seven at-large spots with the top-ranked team in the Group of Six.
The other four spots go to the top-ranked conference champions; those teams so far – by our estimation – are Georgia (SEC), Utah (Big 12), Miami (ACC), and UCLA (Big Ten).
No. 1 Miami is not included in this week’s upset alert because the Hurricanes are a 7.5-point underdog at Notre Dame and will be without Malachi Toney.
Here are the five teams with national championship hopes that could suffer a disappointment this weekend.
No. 2 Georgia
Opponent: at No. 10 Ole Miss (+3.5)
This one will truly test the defending SEC champions on both sides of the ball, given the Rebels’ talent at quarterback with Trinidad Chambliss and their improved defensive performance in recent weeks. Since starting the season 5-0 with an average margin of victory of 38 points per game, Georgia’s offense has cooled considerably over the Bulldogs’ last three outings, producing 20, 24 and 20 points against Alabama, Auburn and Florida, respectively.
This Ole Miss offense found success twice last fall against Glenn Schumann’s defense, as the Rebels and Bulldogs split their two meetings. Chambliss has torched Georgia in his two career starts and has the luxury of playing at home for the first time in the rubber match. If Ole Miss wins, a multitude of SEC Championship storylines will come into play down the stretch.
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No. 3 Utah
Opponent: against No. 9 BYU (+5.5)
It just means more – in the Big 12. One of Saturday’s best games, things get off to an early start in Salt Lake City at 10 a.m. local time for the Utes’ battle against the one-loss Cougars. Utah is our projected conference champion after Week 9 and would earn a top-4 seed if Morgan Scalley’s team wins the conference. However, BYU and Texas Tech aren’t far behind. The Cougars take control with a win this weekend, despite their recent loss at UCF. Holy war has never been more important in the debate on the CFP. BYU has won three straight in the series since Utah won nine in a row from 2010-2019.
No. 8 UCLA
Opponent: in Minnesota (+5.5)
Not only do the Bruins have to deal with traveling across the country for this one and the numbers playing against West Coast teams at this location, but kickoff is at 12 p.m. ET. This puts UCLA players’ body clocks on an early morning schedule. We’re sure Bob Chesney and his staff have a plan in place for that after experiencing a similar time difference at Maryland earlier this season, but it remains a concern for one of college football’s three remaining undefeated.
The Golden Gophers would be ranked right now if they had taken care of business in the final seconds of last week’s overtime loss to Indiana after taking the lead on Luke Drzewiecki’s 60-yard run in the final minute of regulation. That came after Minnesota’s Week 8 win over then-15th-ranked Iowa put the Golden Gophers back in the CFP bubble. Both of these teams win on defense, and it feels like the first team to 20 points emerges victorious Saturday afternoon.
#7 Texas
Opponent: at No. 18 Missouri (+2.5)
The Longhorns have had five games this season decided by one possession and could find themselves in another SEC matchup against the Tigers. In the first of back-to-back road matchups against top-20 contenders, Texas must avoid mistakes against a team that thrives on takeaways. Missouri’s +8 turnover margin is second-best in the SEC behind Kentucky, and it didn’t struggle with just five giveaways.
Texas comes in with injuries that sideline several key starters, including Hollywood Smothers in the backfield and offensive tackle Trevor Goosby. The hope is Colin Simmons returns, but that’s not a guarantee after missing the Longhorns’ wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Current national leader with three classified victories this season, Texas further improves its record if it manages to fend off Missouri in CoMo.
No. 12 Ohio State
Opponent: against No. 23 Oregon (+7.5)
The Buckeyes are on the road to the danger zone after last week’s loss at USC. Ohio State must bounce back with a win against the Ducks, with freshman quarterback Luke Fahey making his second start, or this team’s CFP hopes will dwindle further. This one started with Ohio State as a 9.5-point favorite and was already betting on a close touchdown on Wednesday night. One of the most dangerous three-loss teams in the country, Oregon has already picked up a few wins this season against nationally ranked opponents (Boise State, USC) and crushed Northwestern at home in Week 9 with a furious comeback behind Dylan Raiola’s 336 yards and three touchdowns.
Ohio State took a step back defensively after leading the Big Ten in several statistical categories last fall and now sits outside the conference’s top 3 in opponents’ third-down conversion rate (12th), explosive plays allowed (6th) and red zone touchdown percentage (8th). Ohio State is just 6-4 in its last 10 games under Ryan Day, and that’s another possible landmine.
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