Give Donbass, take NATO headquarters: could the new American discourse work for Ukraine and Russia? | Russia-Ukraine War

The United States has opened a new path for Ukraine to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), an aspiration that kyiv has long seen as a way to guarantee its defense against Russia, almost five years after the start of their war.

But President Donald Trump’s administration has suggested that Ukraine should agree to cede the entire Donbass region in the country’s east, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded as one of his conditions for ending the war.

The idea, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was communicated to him by Trump negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner during the latest round of U.S.-led Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, last week.

After the Abu Dhabi round of negotiations, Kushner and Witkoff met Putin in Moscow on Thursday, then briefed Zelensky in Dublin, ahead of a meeting of European leaders in the Irish capital on Friday.

Ukraine has applied to become a NATO member in September 2022, seeking to strengthen its borders with Russia.

But the Kremlin has repeatedly said Ukraine’s NATO membership would require “a tough response” from Russia.

So, will Washington’s latest argument be acceptable to both Ukraine and Russia?

Here’s what we know:

What do we know about the American proposal?

On Saturday, Zelensky told reporters that Kushner and Witkoff had suggested that Ukraine could become a NATO member if it ceded control of Donbass to the east.

He said: “The Americans raised the question: ‘What if Ukraine joins NATO? Would Ukraine withdraw from Donbas?'”

“NATO is back on the agenda” because it is part of an “extremely difficult” conversation between Ukraine and Russia that would determine the future of European security, Zelensky said.

Putin opposed Ukraine’s membership in NATO and demanded that the alliance withdraw its troops from countries bordering Russia.

“This is dangerous because, in my opinion, it is precisely things like this that lead to wars or escalations,” Zelensky said.

“The real security in Europe is the EU (European Union) and NATO. That’s it. There is no other security in Europe.”

Ian Lesser, distinguished fellow at the US German Marshall Fund, told Al Jazeera that the US proposal, if correct, is important because it very directly expresses an approach long common in US administration circles that Ukraine should be prepared to make territorial concessions in the service of a settlement.

“The NATO element seems very doubtful. It is surely attractive to Ukraine, but (it is) hard to imagine Moscow accepting this. And some NATO members will also have doubts,” he said.

Chris Featherstone, a political scientist at the University of York in the United Kingdom, argued that the proposal was a major departure from positions previously held.

“The United States has been very cautious about becoming more involved in Ukraine, with the Biden administration providing military support but clearly opposing any idea of ​​Western involvement on the ground. Trump has seemed very sympathetic to the Russian cause and has had significant clashes with Zelensky, so this proposal certainly comes as a surprise,” he noted.

He told Al Jazeera that offering NATO membership as part of a peace deal would provide significant support to Ukraine if Russia restarts the conflict in the future.

“In light of Trump’s repeated attacks on NATO, this could be seen as a recommitment to the alliance. However, questions would arise about whether Trump could get other NATO allies to support the proposal,” he added.

What does the American proposal mean for Ukraine?

Ukraine applied to become a NATO member in September 2022, just months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country.

Since then, Zelensky, his officials and Ukrainians around the world have pressured NATO countries to speed up kyiv’s accession process.

But NATO members remain divided over Ukraine’s membership proposal amid the ongoing war, despite broad consensus in favor of strong support for kyiv.

NATO members bordering Russia, such as Lithuania and Poland, have been keen to support Ukraine’s ambitions. Several other countries in the alliance have also supported an accelerated process for Kyiv to join, amid concerns about corruption in Ukraine and while seeking to end the war with Russia as a condition for the country to become a NATO member.

But under President Trump, the United States has been much less receptive to Ukraine’s calls to join NATO. Trump has publicly called on Ukraine to abandon any hope of joining the alliance.

Yet even if Witkoff and Kushner’s new proposal revives Ukraine’s hopes of joining NATO, it requires a compromise that no kyiv government can easily make.

On Saturday, Zelensky told reporters that the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO in exchange for a cession of territories had never been raised by alliance members before and reiterated that kyiv would not give up any of its territories.

But he added that if Ukraine gets a peace deal that includes security guarantees, the right to maintain a strong and well-funded Ukrainian army and funds to rebuild the country, then he would hold a national referendum on the issue of ceding territory in exchange for NATO membership.

Featherstone noted that Ukraine has been fighting for a long time and has always maintained that it would not give up its territory as part of a peace deal.

“The Trump administration’s proposal is clearly an attempt to test the Ukrainian position, with the aim of breaking the deadlock,” he said.

“NATO membership would provide a level of security that Ukraine would likely appreciate, but it would represent a great sacrifice of territory and sovereignty. After years of Trump questioning NATO’s commitment, Ukraine would need a strong declaration of commitment to its defense if it were to consider a proposal like this,” he added.

What does the American proposal mean for Russia?

The Kremlin has not yet responded to the latest American proposal.

But she maintains a strict stance that Ukraine’s NATO membership constitutes a red line for Moscow and a direct threat to Russia’s national security. In fact, Putin also cited the issue of Ukraine’s NATO aspirations as one of the reasons why Russia launched its war in 2022.

Despite Kushner and Witkoff’s meetings with Putin, the Kremlin has been reluctant to change its position. Moscow continued throughout the war to demand that Ukraine abandon its NATO ambitions and maintain a neutral, demilitarized status. Russia has also strongly opposed any deployment of Western troops or peacekeepers on Ukrainian soil.

In addition to demanding that Ukraine give up its NATO dreams, Moscow has also insisted that Ukraine cede sovereignty over the Donbass region, as well as parts of the Zaporizhia and Kherson provinces that Russia already occupies.

Just as the new US proposal asks Ukraine to cede some territory in exchange for a NATO seat, it offers Russia a deal: remove the red line on Ukraine’s NATO membership and get Donbass in exchange.

Why is Donbass important?

The eastern region of Ukraine has always been the industrial heart of the country and is therefore a key economic driver.

A majority of people in Donbas identify as being of Ukrainian origin, but a minority identify as being of Russian origin. The Russian language is also widely spoken in the region – a legacy of Russian migration in the 19th century and then under the Soviet Union.

Russia accuses Ukraine of discriminating against Russian speakers and ethnic Russians in Donbas, and has used the claim to justify its demand that kyiv cede the region to Moscow.

The region includes the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk. Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has occupied almost all of Luhansk and most of Donetsk. In total, it controls around 88 percent of the Donbas region. But he has still demanded that Ukrainian troops withdraw from the remaining parts of Donbas that they currently hold.

Harry Nedelcu, partner and senior director of geopolitics at Rasmussen Global, who previously served on the NATO secretary general’s policy planning team, told Al Jazeera that the US proposal tested how much Donbas territory actually matters to Russia.

But he added that recent negotiations in Abu Dhabi had shown that Russia wanted more than just territorial concessions from Ukraine.

“They (the Russians) want to discuss what they call a new European security architecture, which is the code name for Russia’s veto power when it comes to NATO,” he said.

He noted that it is also interesting that the Americans did not put forward to the Russians the idea of ​​ceding Donbass to NATO for kyiv.

“But everything indicates that the Russians will never accept this,” he said, referring to the idea of ​​Ukraine joining NATO.

“The Russians have no intention of coming to the negotiating table. They are simply raising new questions (currently on the European security architecture) and expanding the agenda in order to give the impression that they are negotiating and appeasing American leaders, while inflicting as much damage as possible on Ukraine,” he added.

What did the United States say?

The United States has not explicitly announced that it is suggesting kyiv cede territory in preparation for NATO membership.

On Saturday, hours after Zelensky’s remarks to reporters, in a lengthy article on X, Kushner suggested that “the press has reported some of the maximalist positions proposed by both sides, as well as strong political rhetoric.”

He stressed that the conversations between Russia, Ukraine and the United States were “private discussions” aimed at ending the war.

“Several new ideas emerged from these discussions and are currently being explored. Some could lead directly to breakthroughs, while others could evolve into new proposals that would help close remaining gaps,” he said.

“In our private discussions, both sides understand that practical compromises will be necessary to end this war. Serious and constructive work continues between us who are determined to find solutions,” he added.

Earlier Thursday, Kushner also told reporters that Putin had agreed to include Europe in peace negotiations.

“We cannot conclude this agreement without the Europeans being at the table,” he said.