Gluesenkamp Perez and Braun neck and neck in race for Southwest Washington swing district, OPB poll finds

The two candidates vying to represent Washington’s 3rd Congressional District are deadlocked less than five weeks before a closely watched election that could help determine control of the House of Representatives, according to a poll by the nonpartisan firm DHM Research and commissioned by OPB.

The DHM surveyed 543 potential voters in the constituency between September 17 and 27.

The results show an incredibly close race between Democratic incumbent Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and her Republican challenger, Washington state Sen. John Braun. Tiny percentages, which fall within the poll’s 4.2% margin of error, divide the candidates.

Among likely voters, 46% would be more likely to vote for Braun if the election were held today, while 44% would be more likely to vote for Gluesenkamp Perez.

But 11% of potential voters said they did not know who they would vote for. To get an unambiguous idea of ​​where the race stood, DHM’s John Horvick said, pollsters pressed undecided voters on which direction they were leaning.

Braun came away with 48% to Gluesenkamp Perez’s 47% – a difference still well within the margin of error. 5% of respondents said they were still unsure.

“This is a hotly contested district, regardless of the candidates or the political environment,” said Horvick, senior vice president of DHM, who conducted the poll for OPB. But, he added, this year there appear to be two competing pressures on the race.

Braun, who is endorsed by President Donald Trump, is a “more established” candidate than Joe Kent, who challenged Gluesenkamp Perez in 2022 and 2024, Horvick said. Kent falsely claimed during his campaign that Trump won the 2020 election and suggested the FBI secretly incited the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Yet at the same time, Horvick said, the national political environment in 2026 favors Democrats more amid steady inflation and rising gas prices.

“I have the impression that these two forces are clashing… which results in an election that promises to be very close,” he said.

This will also be an important event. The 3rd District is among 22 House races nationwide currently considered “toss-ups” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report and is closely watched by both parties.

In some ways, the district is a microcosm of the country, with rural communities rooted in agriculture, manufacturing and the trades clashing with fast-growing cities like Vancouver. The district voted for Trump three times by single-digit margins and elected and re-elected Democrat Gluesenkamp Perez. Democrats and Republicans have each held the district for extended periods at different times since the 1990s. A majority of likely voters surveyed, 35%, consider themselves more independent than aligned with the Republican or Democratic parties.

The state of the economy, cost of living, health care and homelessness were the dominant issues on voters’ minds, according to the poll, even though the vast majority of voters surveyed said they had little or no confidence in Congress’ progress.

Oregon voters had similar feelings when asked about their attitudes toward the gubernatorial race just across the Columbia River. Responses to an OPB poll show Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek and Republican Sen. Christine Drazan virtually deadlocked amid widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo.

In Southwest Washington, Gluesenkamp Perez and Braun are both campaigning on promises to put the needs of local communities ahead of national politics, emphasizing their independence from their parties.

Gluesenkamp Perez focused on supporting small businesses and trades, protecting access to health care in rural areas and ending the war in Iran. Braun primarily focused on reducing taxes, supporting law enforcement, and expanding domestic energy production.

“This poll confirms what we already know: This is a close race,” the Braun campaign said in a statement to OPB. “We are doing everything we can to show voters that John Braun shares their values ​​and will protect their paychecks.”

In response to the OPB poll, Gluesenkamp Perez campaign manager Tim Gowan attributed the race’s narrow margin to a sharp increase in spending by Republican and Trump-aligned PACs in recent weeks.

No Going Back PAC Inc., a new super PAC linked to Trump, has spent $1.7 million in the race so far.

“Grassroots-funded candidates like Marie can’t match this kind of spending,” Gowan said in a statement. “We’re seeing the same trend in battleground districts across the country, where elections are tightening under a wave of nearly unlimited outside money.”

Total outside spending by Democratic groups in the 3rd District race was $354,000 as of Wednesday, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

As part of the poll, DHM asked respondents to rate the importance of candidates’ positions on several issues in influencing their vote.

Among likely voters, 100% said the economy and cost of living were either “very important” or “somewhat important.” Healthcare and homelessness also feature high on the list, with 89% of respondents calling them “very important” or “somewhat important.” Large majorities also cited K-12 public education, crime and foreign policy as important.

Yet 88% of likely voters said they have little or no confidence in the ability of the nation’s elected officials to make progress on the issues they care about most.

Among likely voters, 62% say their community’s K-12 public schools don’t prepare students well for the real world, 91% say it’s difficult to find affordable housing, and 80% think children growing up in Washington state today will be worse off than people today when they become adults.