- What is most worrying for the Republican Party is that there is virtually no chance that the war will end, that inflation will subside, that interest rates will fall, that consumer confidence will increase, and that economic optimism will rise. before the November 3 elections.
- That’s why Republicans fear the tide will jeopardize so many candidates once considered safe.
The big picture: Predicting election results is risky business, but maybe it’s time to expand the imagination about how ugly it could get for Republicans in five weeks.
Start with some background music:
- This week, Trump’s disapproval rating reached 60.4%, the worst mark of his two terms, including in the aftermath of the January 6 riots.
- Gasoline prices are above $4 a gallon, diesel has reached $6.50 and no relief is in sight.
- Seven months later, the United States finds itself in a standoff with Iran, with no apparent exit strategy.
- Food prices continue to rise year after year.
- Mortgage rates have reached 7%.
- And the cost of borrowing across the economy continues to rise.
Take part in the elections: The GOP’s problems are everywhere. In the battle for the Senate, once ruby red Texas appears more in play than ever, and Florida isn’t far behind. Neither does Alaska. North Carolina and Georgia seem lost. Maine is problematic.
- The Republican Senate campaign arm is seeking an additional $8.9 million to defend Senate seats in three states that Trump won by double digits two years ago: Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
- “We’re having a hard time getting Republican voters to respond to polls,” said a national Republican pollster. “At what point do we think these guys are not showing up to the polls on Election Day?”
Only in Michigan Do Republicans see glimmers of hope of winning a Senate seat because Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is seen by some as so radical that he “scared our people into wanting to vote,” the GOP said the pollster. “But even then, in this environment, who knows?”
- What once seemed like a longshot for Democrats — taking control of the Senate by flipping four Republican-held seats on a map favoring the Republican Party — is looking increasingly plausible.
On the side of the House, The Cook Political Report shifted 15 House races to the Democrats on Friday.
- Democrats need just three seats to take control of the chamber.
- The Republicans now play a defensive role in the heart of red America. Republican-aligned groups are spending money in more than a half-dozen districts that Trump won by at least 15 points in 2024.
- House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) maintains low expectations for what a good election night will look like. He told Axios that Republicans could get 225 seats in the House. You need 218 to have a majority.
What they say: “Although many have long predicted that Democrats will benefit from a ‘blue wave,’ I view this more as a ‘red tide’ that will sweep away many Republicans and significantly reduce the margins of many others,” said Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Report and a leading election handicapper.
- It’s an implicit reminder that Democrats’ approval ratings aren’t good; they are simply better than the Republicans.
- “Over the past 90 days,” Cook added, “President Trump’s political position has gone from highly unpopular to toxic and now radioactive.”
- Another consultant involved in races across the country said: “Things were bad. But they started getting worse recently and if it continues on this path it’s going to be really bad.”
The environment begins to compete the second midterm election of President George W. Bush’s term in 2006, the consultant said, amid the Iraq War and the botched response to Hurricane Katrina. Republicans lost control of both chambers after losing 30 House seats and six Senate seats.
- “The numbers are somewhere between crappy and crappy,” a top Republican advising several federal elections across the country told Axios. “It looks worse than 2018 now. Trump is heading towards 2006 Bush levels.”
State of affairs: More and more recently, Republican incumbents are running to hide from Trump.
- In Iowa, two House Republicans switched positions to support a war powers resolution against Iran.
- Sen. Chuck Grassley, who rode the 1980 Republican wave in the Senate, and Rep. Ashley Hinson, running for Iowa’s other Senate seat, are demanding restrictions on diesel exports.
The other side: A Trump adviser downplayed the Republican Party’s shake-ups, emphasizing the Republicans’ enormous financial advantage.
- “If we execute and our people show up, it’s a different situation,” the adviser said. “There’s more than a month left.”
- “Look, things aren’t going well,” the advisor admitted. “But it’s a midterm presidential term. Things are tricky. Things always get tricky for any White House right now.”
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