The Republican Party’s midterm campaign has turned into a sorting operation just three weeks into November, as officials fight to avoid losses in a series of once-safe seats that they increasingly fear could cost them full control of Congress.
The deteriorating situation has alarmed GOP operatives in several battleground states, forcing the party to invest resources in traditionally red districts and states at the expense of its once-expansive ambitions in Democratic areas.
And after months of pressuring President Donald Trump to speed up his travels on behalf of key candidates, some Republicans now worry that he has become so unpopular that his presence on the campaign trail could, in some cases, do more harm than good.
A House Republican running for re-election said of the president’s numbers, “Trump is dragging the party down.”
The bleak outlook for the Republican Party follows weeks of polling showing Republicans are on the verge of losing the House amid intense voter anger over the war in Iran and the rising cost of living – and are also at grave risk of losing their once-solid majority in the Senate.
The growing number of competitive races has complicated Republican leaders’ plans to catch up by releasing hundreds of millions of dollars over time. Despite a huge financial advantage fueled in part by the pro-Trump super PAC, MAGA Inc., spending so far has failed to significantly change Republican fortunes as more money is diverted to races once considered comfortable victories.
Already, the Senate Leadership Fund, the most prominent Republican super PAC in Senate races, has suspended its ad bookings in North Carolina and has invested at least $10 million in Kansas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. It also recently invested $5 million in South Carolina to bolster incumbent Sen. Darline Graham, as some Republicans fear she will lose ground to Democrat Annie Andrews in the deep red state.
That’s on top of more than $100 million the Senate Leadership Fund has spent in Texas to support Ken Paxton, who is working to shore up Republican Party support in his race alongside Democrat James Talarico after a bruising primary campaign. Trump himself visited Texas three times in one month to rally voters in favor of Paxton.
“We all hoped the war would be over by now, but it’s not,” a Trump adviser said. “We shouldn’t be fighting in a place like Texas, but we obviously are.”
Top Republicans who drive House spending are also expected to focus on their priorities in the coming days, doubling down on races they view as winnable while sharply reducing their investments in candidates whose fortunes are fading, several people familiar with the matter said.
This winnowing will mark the latest recognition of the challenge facing Republicans — and an effort to focus resources on select candidates who can defend their seats, or flip blue districts, and generally limit Democratic encroachment.
The Cook Political Report delivered the latest blow Friday, shifting 18 House races to the Democrats. Those contests include five randomly drawn seats in Iowa, Pennsylvania and Washington that the closely watched analysis predicts Democratic candidates are now more likely to win.
The Senate map also did little to reassure the Republican Party. Paxton is being drip-fed with damaging audio leaks from a private fundraiser, further frustrating Republican officials who already think he’s running a bad campaign. Democrats are leading polls in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina, while running insurgent campaigns in solidly red states like Alaska and even Kansas.
“I don’t know if the environment could get any worse,” said Jason Roe, a Michigan Republican Party strategist who advises Rep. Tom Barrett, who is in a neck-and-neck race against his Democratic challenger Will Lawrence. “If we lost that, it couldn’t have been won.”
At the White House, Trump and his top advisers are clear-eyed about the tough odds of retaining the House and the growing threat to the Senate majority, people familiar with the matter said.
But optimism persists that Republicans can limit their losses and turn the prospect of a blue wave into little more than a ripple. Trump’s advisers expect polling to tighten in the final days of the campaign, especially as more ads hit the airwaves and less engaged Republican voters begin to tune in to them.
“I’m not saying we’re going to win, it’s going to be so great. No, I’m not saying that. But are we going to be wiped out? No, we’re not going to be wiped out,” said another House Republican running for re-election.
Some strong Republican candidates are likely to outperform generic polling results that show Democrats favored by a healthy margin, the people familiar argued. At the same time, they are counting on a handful of far-left Democratic candidates to underperform. And even at current margins, they note, the difference between Republicans losing the House or expanding their majority is only a matter of a few percentage points in a handful of races.
“This election is going to come down to one side saying the Republicans didn’t clean up their mess fast enough, and what we’re saying is, ‘We know you’re struggling, but these are the things we’re doing to make your life better and, by the way, they’re crazy,'” another Republican told CNN.
For his part, President Mike Johnson has pledged to do everything in his power to hold the majority and is campaigning in more than 40 districts and 20 states ahead of the election.
“President Johnson is not slowing down and helping provide resources to each district that will decide the majority,” Johnson’s political communications director Greg Steele said in a statement to CNN.
While Trump has largely avoided swing districts lately, he has shown a new enthusiasm for campaigning that his advisers have been quick to take advantage of, sending him to favorable areas across the country where they believe he can help the Republican Party’s turnout. They dismissed any talk that Trump should keep a low profile given his declining popularity, arguing that the midterm elections will be a referendum on his presidency no matter what.
“The panic is unwarranted and unfounded,” a White House official said of the Republican Party’s midterm trajectory. “It’s all going to come down to who has the ability to turn out their low-propensity voters. … That’s why we’re going where we’re going: energizing the base.”
In a statement, White House spokesman Davis Ingle called Trump “the unequivocal leader, greatest messenger and unparalleled motivator for the Republican Party.”
National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella said in a statement: “House Republicans have a more favorable map, a stronger field game, historic fundraising and spending advantages, and proven incumbents while Democrats are stuck dragging their ineligible socialist candidates to the finish line.” »
A senior Republican National Committee official argued that pollsters and strategists were writing off the Republican Party’s midterm chances too soon.
“The first to rush and call you in these times are not the ones who are fighting,” the official told CNN. “They would rather just say that no one knows what they are doing and that everything is doomed to failure rather than taking an objective look at what is happening. »
Trump’s rallies — which included a stop in Texas on Thursday and a trip to upstate New York on Friday to seek out gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman — reinforced Trump’s mood and his view of Republicans’ chances, the White House official and others familiar with his comments said.
Still, Trump has tacitly acknowledged that his presence might not be useful everywhere, at a time when large majorities are frustrated with his economic policies and oppose the war in Iran.
The president has refused to reprimand Republican candidates who broke with him over the war and tariffs, saying they “need to run a campaign,” the White House official said — although those Republicans generally agreed with the White House in advance.
Trump has also stayed away from some races where vulnerable Republicans have tried to carve out an identity separate from him, such as Maine Sen. Susan Collins. The president is not currently expected to visit Maine before the midterm elections, people familiar with the matter said, while cautioning that his schedule fluctuates and that could change.
Still, there is little expectation that a Republican candidate will be able to completely escape the gravitational pull that Trump has exerted on the political landscape since his return to the White House.
And after nearly two years of demanding Republican Party unity, Trump advisers have advised Republicans that their best hope in the final weeks is to make their own case about why they should get another term in Congress — and, crucially, what they plan to do once there to assuage voters’ frustrations.
“We are now fighting individually,” the Trump adviser said. “It’s ugly for both sides, and it’s going to be a hand-to-hand fight.”
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