A Republican super PAC is suspending ad spending in the North Carolina Senate race and launching a new ad effort in Kansas, the latest sign that the fight for the majority is shifting to red states in an increasingly difficult landscape for the GOP.
The new measures from the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with GOP leadership in the Senate, were first reported by Semafor and confirmed by two people with knowledge of the decision.
Ad spending decisions can provide clear signals about which races parties and outside groups view as most competitive and farthest out of reach.
SLF’s decision to direct its resources to Kansas underscores the extent to which Democrats are putting traditionally Republican states at stake as they try to gain four seats to take control of the Senate. Democrats will need to win several states won by President Donald Trump by double digits in 2024, in addition to defending seats in battleground states.
As Election Day approaches, Democrats are becoming increasingly optimistic about their chances, as Trump’s approval rating plummets and voters express frustration over high costs and the war in Iran.
The race in Kansas between Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton has become more competitive down the stretch, even though the state hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
So far, SLF has booked more than $8 million in airtime in Kansas, according to ad tracking company AdImpact.
The SLF has been actively involved in North Carolina, where former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is facing former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat.
As of September, the group spent more than $17 million on the race, according to AdImpact. The group still has another $19 million in advertising booked through Election Day, but has no plans to add more at this time.
Trump and Vice President JD Vance also each visited the state last month to support Whatley, whom the president personally encouraged to run for the vacant seat.
But the decision to pause spending in North Carolina, a perennial battleground, is a sign that the race to replace outgoing Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is shifting away from the Republican Party.
Republicans have been pessimistic for weeks about their prospects in the state, with Cooper leading in a recent poll and outspending Whatley.
The party’s confidence level in its chances of defeating Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia has also declined, but a person familiar with SLF’s spending noted that the group has not suspended spending in this race. Trump won Georgia by just 2 points in 2024.
Yet the SLF focused most of its resources on other hotly contested senatorial elections.
In September, SLF spent $78 million on ads in Texas through an affiliated group, and SLF itself spent nearly $33 million in Ohio. Elsewhere, the group last month spent $16 million in Michigan, $15 million in Iowa, $13 million in Maine, $10 million in Georgia, $8 million in Alaska and $5 million in New Hampshire, according to AdImpact.
From October through the Nov. 3 election, SLF’s Texas group has set aside $48 million in advertising, while SLF is expected to spend $40 million in Ohio, $18 million in Michigan, $17 million in Maine, $16 million in Georgia, nearly $14 million in Iowa, $8 million in New Hampshire and $5 million in Alaska.
Trump won Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska by double digits in 2024.
Even as the SLF looks to spend its resources elsewhere, North Carolina Senate candidates are still gearing up for a hotly contested race.
Whatley spokesman DJ Griffin said in a statement that Cooper recently pointed out that Democrats are often ahead “until they’re not.”
“Undecided voters who stay up late decide elections in North Carolina and the majority of those usually turn Republican,” Griffin said. “We are confident we have the resources to highlight career politician Roy Cooper’s 40 years of failure and achieve victory this November.”
Cooper’s campaign manager, Jeff Allen, also suggested the race was still competitive, pointing out in a statement that no Democrat had been elected to the North Carolina Senate in nearly 20 years and describing North Carolina as “a 50-50 state.”
“We are building a campaign to win every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them, while Michael Whatley continues to enrich himself at their expense,” Allen said.
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