CNN Chief data analyst Harry Enten said Democrats had a “big wake-up call” before Election Day and that polling margins were tight in key Senate races.
Enten said the Senate is “too close to call” because polls show many elections are within the margin of error and Democrats will have to wait until Election Day to see if the poll is correct or if Republicans overperform and maintain control.
Midterm elections are generally seen as a test of the political environment facing the ruling party, and the president’s party has historically lost seats in these elections. Republicans now hold a slim majority in the House and Senate.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s overall approval rating and ranking on specific policy issues such as the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have plummeted as households across America consistently report affordability issues.
As the president travels the country, chasing Republicans in key races, he has faced unfavorable polling, including record approval ratings for both terms in a new term. Fox News survey.
What you need to know
A handful of Senate races are considered toss-ups by forecasters ahead of Election Day. Sabato’s crystal ball lists Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and Maine as throws. The Cook Political Report lists Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas as states to launch.
The polls are neck and neck in almost every race, with many falling within the margin of error for a statistical tie.
“At the end of the day, we have a few weeks left in this campaign, the polls have been close,” Enten said.
“I think we’ve seen this story a little bit before, and that’s why the Senate map is still way too close to call Republican, which is really in the game,” he added.
Craig Agranoff, professor of politics at Florida Atlantic University, said News week: “Democrats have a real way to go, but Enten is right that it’s still too close to decide. The matchups in Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Maine and Alaska are all within a few points. Democrats need four net seats, and polls currently give them enough of a lead or tie to get there if the numbers hold up.
“The trap is the same one noted by Enten. Republican candidates have often outperformed averages by 3 or 4 points in recent cycles. A normal failure in their leadership flips several of these races and keeps the Senate Republican. With less than three weeks to go, Democrats are looking better than they did a month ago. The map is not locked in any way.”
What the survey shows
In Kansas, a recent poll shows Democrat Adam Hamilton leading by a few points or tied with Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall.
An InsiderAdvantage poll shows Hamilton with 47.5 percent of the vote to Marshall’s 46.7 percent. Libertarian Party candidate David C. Graham received 3.4 percent of the vote and 2.4 percent were undecided. The poll was conducted October 9-10, 2026 among 1,200 likely voters and had a margin of error of 2.83%. The results are within the margin of error.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is leading in the majority of recent polls against Republican Ken Paxton.
In an ActiVote poll, Talarico leads with 51.9 percent of the vote, compared to Paxton’s 48.1 percent. The poll surveyed 400 likely midterm voters from September 30 to October 14, 2026 and had a margin of error of 4.9%. The results of this poll are also within the margin of error.
In Ohio, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads in the majority of polls, where the race is tied with Republican Sen. Jon Husted.
In a Bowling Green State University/Democracy and Public Policy Network Polls/YouGov survey, Husted had 42 percent of the potential vote, compared to Brown’s 48 percent. Libertarian Bill Redpath got 3 percent, independent Greg Levy 5 percent and 2 percent, according to someone else.
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters in Ohio between September 29 and October 9, 2026 and had a margin of error of 4%. This result puts Brown in the lead and outside the margin of error.
Recent polls in Alaska, Maine and Iowa also show single-digit leads, or even results, as Election Day approaches.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate race in Michigan has drawn Trump’s attention and is a contest watched across the country.
Polls show Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers, with Democrats hoping to keep their seats.
A Quantus Insights poll gives El-Sayed a score of 47.6 percent, compared to Rogers’ 46.5 percent. The survey polled 762 likely voters from October 5-6, 2026 and had a margin of error of 7.8%. The poll also indicates that 4.2 percent are undecided. These results are well within the margin of error.
Map shows races launched before midterm elections
Newsweek Reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek’s editor-in-chief for this story: Edward Pearcey.
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