- Republicans have relied on a simple majority funding mechanism known as reconciliation to fund high-profile projects like Golden Dome. This option is now unlikely in the coming months, and impossible thereafter.
- Outrage over the war in Iran, well beyond six months, is sure to energize a long list of congressional investigations.
- And lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, including Reps. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), have suggested impeaching Hegseth.
Follow the money: Defense analysts agree that the outlook for the administration’s total defense budget, estimated at $1.5 trillion, appears bleak.
- A memo released Wednesday by TD Cowen’s research group in Washington warned that “Trump’s ‘branding’ projects are dead.” Golden Dome, Golden Fleet and “other signature efforts,” he adds, “will be held back.”
- Meanwhile, Todd Harrison, a defense budget expert at the American Enterprise Institute, said the lame-duck session of Congress was unlikely to achieve reconciliation and keep the defense budget under a continuing resolution until next year.
- “They’re all in danger,” Harrison said of programs supported by reconciliation. “My basic hope is that nothing happens with regard to the defense budget.”
The other side: The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment.
Between the lines: Some of the most powerful Republican defense lawmakers have been defeated or are on the verge of losing.
- Appropriations chair Sen. Susan Collins lost to Troy Jackson in Maine.
- Sen. Darline Graham, also on Appropriations, lost to Annie Andrews in South Carolina.
- Rep. Jen Kiggans, a member of the Armed Services and Veterans Affairs committees, lost to Elaine Luria in Virginia.
- And as of Wednesday afternoon, Reps. Rob Wittman of Virginia, Mike Turner of Ohio, Scott DesJarlais of Tennessee and Jeff Crank of Colorado were all trailing their Democratic challengers.
What they say: Hegseth himself may be in the hot seat.
- “Secretary Hegseth’s chaotic and incompetent leadership has made America weaker and less secure, and now he will be forced to answer for it,” Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), a member of the Appropriations, Armed Services, and Intelligence committees, told Axios.
- “We owe it to our service members, our military families and the American people to ensure that Hegseth and the Trump administration as a whole are held fully accountable,” she added.
Yes, but: President Trump told reporters he had no plans to replace Hegseth. “No, I think he’s doing a really good job,” he said.
The bottom line: “People expect there to be investigations and oversight and all that, and that will definitely have an impact,” VJ Sahi, a partner at strategic consulting firm Clark Street Associates, told Axios.
- But the “degree of the impact”, he added, remains “to be determined”.
Go further: When defense and marketing meet
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