Here’s How Bad The College Football Playoff Selection Committee’s Rankings Really Are | Ian Miller

It’s been two weeks into the College Football Playoff voting and two weeks of seemingly endless controversy.

What the selection committee values, playing in a conference, and what fans and other analysts value, seem to be two very different things. There are a number of rankings that are controversial, confusing or downright inexplicable. And committee chairman Hunter Yurachek’s attempts at explanation during the post-release interview only made things worse, rather than clarifying their thinking.

But it’s easy to complain, subjectively, that one ranking or another doesn’t make sense or isn’t consistent with previous thinking. But what would be the best system to bring order to teams? Or at least, a much better test that doesn’t rely too heavily on the often misleading “eye test” and the inherent biases of committee members.

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Miami head coach Mario Cristobal yells at a referee during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Notre Dame, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026, in South Bend, Indiana. (AP Photo/Paul Barnick)

Fortunately, some outside analysts have found their own way of comparing a more objective set of rankings to the committee’s, er, heavily influenced poll.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly created a blended set of metrics to better evaluate important performance metrics. Essentially, using an 80/20 combination, with the 80 side being CV Ranking, Record Strength, “Football Power Index” and the 20 side being Prospective Ratings.

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These are tailored to the opponent and focus more on the underlying effectiveness of the offense, defense, and special teams. This is a better methodology for predicting team performance, given that wins and losses are noisy and often influenced by random outcomes.

So what does it look like?

Jordan Faison of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish catches a touchdown pass against the Miami Hurricanes during the first half at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana on November 7, 2026. (Getty Images)

Well, you’ll be stunned to know that once again, a specific conference has been given a huge benefit of the doubt that it doesn’t deserve, and the Miami Hurricanes may feel particularly aggrieved by the treatment they received after suffering their first loss. Here’s the list, with the arrows representing where these teams stand in Connelly’s rankings, relative to the playoff poll. For example, Miami, at number two on Connelly’s list, is five spots higher than in the current rankings.

1. Georgia (8-1) ↔
2. Miami-FL (8-1) ↑ 5
3. Notre Dame (8-1) ↑ 2
4. Utah (9-0) ↓2
5. Alabama (7-2) ↓ 2
6. Indiana (8-1) ↑ 3
7. UCLA (9-0) ↓ 3
8. Texas (7-2) ↓ 2
9. Wake Forest (8-1) ↑ 4
10. Tennessee (7-2) ↓ 2
11. Texas Tech (8-1) ↑ 1
12. Ohio State (6-3) ↑ 8
13. LSU (6-3) ↑ 8
14. Iowa (7-2) ↑ 1
15. Boise State (8-1) ↑ 9
16. BYU (7-2) ↓ 6
17. Oregon (6-3) ↓ 1
18. Houston (7-2) ↓ 4
19. USC (7-2) ↓ 1
20. Ole Miss (6-3) ↓ 1
21. Kentucky (7-2) ↓ 10
22. Arizona (7-2) ↑ 1
23. New Mexico (8-1) ↑ 3+
24. SMU (7-2) ↑ 2+
25. South Carolina (6-3) ↓ 8

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Quite impressive that there is only one spot that matches! This is just one set of rankings, not necessarily definitive, and others have different results, but it indicates how the committee values ​​things it shouldn’t, while ignoring things it should.

Unsurprisingly, Kentucky is the biggest “miss” on the committee, as the Wildcats always receive immense credit for their “SEC” schedule, unaware that their performance doesn’t warrant it. South Carolina is once again eight spots too high in the committee’s poll, given the enormous respect given for simply existing in the SEC.

On the other hand, Boise State is nine spots too low because the committee is unable to judge performance against teams that don’t play in the SEC.

Indiana and Wake Forest are underrated, Alabama is overrated, surprise, surprise, and Miami’s sixth place finish after losing to Notre Dame seems even more absurd. What might be a surprise though, and what would create some controversy, are the rankings of Ohio State and LSU.

Head coach Lane Kiffin of the Louisiana State Tigers takes the field before a game against the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi on September 19, 2026. (Getty Images)

The Buckeyes and Tigers both now have three losses, but the computer metrics give them credit for how they played, while ignoring Julian Sayin’s injury. Efficiency-focused systems are much slower to react to losses to good teams than humans, and the Buckeyes’ three losses have been to Texas, USC and Oregon, while their win over Indiana and dominance against other opponents like Iowa still pushes them into the top 15.

Likewise, LSU is credited with playing well in losses to Ole Miss and Kentucky, putting them higher in the committee’s rankings.

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Overall, though, there are nine SEC teams in the CFB playoff top 25. Seven of them are higher than they would be using an objective measure. Missouri ranks 28th in Connelly’s rankings and 22nd in the poll. Just because. On average, even including LSU at -8 places, the average SEC team failure rate was 2.5 places higher than their performance-based ranking.

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That’s the problem; the SEC has spent years growing through concerted marketing efforts, the people who run the sport believe them, for whatever reason, and the teams are then evaluated based on inaccurate assumptions. It’s bad! Tens of millions of dollars and jobs are at stake, and the committee’s obsession with rewarding SEC mediocrity puts all of that at risk. And the very legitimacy of the process.

The worst? If, by some miracle, the committee corrected this bias in the future, fans, promoters and SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey would be furious. Beyond livid. The complaints, the lamentations, the anger and the press conferences would be incessant. Until they got what they wanted again anyway.

Once accustomed to privileges, it is difficult to give them up.