High turnout, Democrats voting more: Key takeaways from early voting data | 2026 US midterm elections
With just 11 days until the U.S. midterm elections, early voting data is rolling in across the country. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to regain a majority in each chamber of Congress. Here’s where the numbers stand on Friday:
1. Participation increases in key battleground states
As of Friday afternoon, more than 23 million Americans had already voted in person or by mail. Among key battleground states, Michigan and Ohio each topped 900,000 ballots cast, while Georgia recorded nearly 1.5 million early votes, North Carolina more than 1.2 million, Florida nearly 2.2 million and Texas more than 2.8 million, according to the University of Florida Election Lab, as of Oct. 23.
While midterm elections typically favor the party’s departure from power, turnout this year is partly due to widespread public frustration over crucial issues, including Donald Trump’s handling of the economy, the cost-of-living crisis and his deeply unpopular war with Iran. The backlash — reflected in the president’s record approval ratings — has Republicans fighting hard to defend seats where Trump won by wide margins just two years ago.
2. These first votes are taking place well before 2022
Early voting is booming compared to the last midterm elections in many battleground states, which will decide control of the Senate.
In Georgia, early voting already represents more than 40% of total turnout in the 2022 midterm elections. Texas is at 35% and North Carolina is at 33%, while Florida is at 27%. Michigan and Ohio are seeing similarly high rates.
3. Democrats lead early results
Registered Democrats represent 45% of early votes, compared to 30% for Republicans (tracking returned ballots, not candidate selection). The party gap is particularly pronounced in North Carolina, Kansas and Iowa – all traditionally Republican-leaning states.
While Republicans have historically preferred to vote on Election Day, strategists fear the widening margin is a sign of a “red tide” — Republican voters staying home due to frustration over high gas prices, the conflict in Iran and high tariffs.
At the same time, Democrats have been energized by Trump’s growing unpopularity and voters’ frustration with affordability, which they say has given them an opportunity to flip seats they haven’t won in decades.
4. Mail voting remains resilient
More than 57 million mail-in ballots have been requested or mailed nationwide — more than the 52 million requested in 2022 — according to NBC News, using data from TargetSmart. The University of Florida Election Lab estimates the number of mail-in ballots requested at more than 59 million.
Despite the Trump administration’s executive orders to restrict mail-in voting, which the Supreme Court struck down in September, voters continue to use the process at pre-pandemic rates.
Gn headline
