How can Antonelli become F1 world champion at the US GP?

It was very clear from the start that Kimi Antonelli would become Formula 1 world champion in 2026 after an impressive year of dominance for the Mercedes driver.

The 20-year-old has made a huge leap forward since his rocky rookie campaign and with five straight wins from rounds two to six, Antonelli has been the man to beat virtually all season.

Now his first chance to win the title is finally in sight next time out in Austin with a 102-point gap to second-placed teammate George Russell.

If he were to win the title at the United States Grand Prix, then Antonelli would have become champion with five rounds remaining, one short of the record held by Michael Schumacher in 2002.

Here’s how he could do it.

How many drivers can still win the 2026 F1 world title?

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes, Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Clive Rose / Formula 1 via Getty Images

Although the direction the title is heading is clear, six drivers are still in the mathematical running as there are 150 points available for the 2026 campaign.

This leaves Antonelli, Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris with some sort of chance to win the championship as 139 points separate the top six in the standings.

How Antonelli becomes F1 world champion at the US GP

Considering you need 25 points for a Grand Prix victory and there are five rounds left after Austin, Antonelli needs to hold an advantage of at least 125 points to become champion. That’s the maximum total available after Texas, but with the Italian having eight wins for the season, Russell is next with three, so he could take the crown on win count.

An example of this is the easiest way for Antonelli to become world champion: winning the United States GP, while Russell finishes ninth or lower. While unlikely, it would still leave a gap of 125 points between the Mercedes duo, with Antonelli taking the upper hand on countdown.

If Russell finishes 10th in Austin, then Antonelli will still have to win the race to become champion that day. The Brit places eighth or higher and the non-existent title fight returns to Mexico at the end of October.

For Hamilton to remain in contention, the Ferrari driver cannot be trailed by 14 points or more in the United States. So if Antonelli wins, Hamilton must finish at least fourth and if the Mercedes driver is second, the seven-time world champion must finish seventh or higher.

For Verstappen – the man in form with two consecutive wins in yet another late Red Bull resurgence – to be knocked out of the title race, Antonelli simply needs to beat the Red Bull driver by at least six points.

So if the Mercedes driver takes the top step in Texas, it will be enough to end all of Verstappen’s hopes. If Antonelli took second place, then fourth place or lower, the four-time world champion would be out.

It’s much simpler when it comes to Antonelli versus Leclerc and Norris, as not losing points against them would put both out of contention.

The above data is in line with the current calendar, where the season would end with the Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix.

We want to hear from you!

– The Autosport.com team