How Flávio Bolsonaro’s arrival in the United States could impact Brazilian politics

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) – Flávio Bolsonaro is now in Miami after fleeing to the United States following his resounding defeat has Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the presidential elections in Brazil.

Bolsonaro refused to give in and positioned himself as the “leader of Brazil” while declaring that there had been electoral fraud, without providing evidence. In a letter Wednesday, the Rio de Janeiro senator said he moved to the United States because he is the victim of political and judicial persecution.

The departure of US President Donald Trump’s 45-year-old ally from Brazil days after the runoff defeat, it sends shockwaves through Brazil’s right and reverberates throughout the region, and could spell even more trouble in relations between Washington and Brasilia.

Here’s what you need to know about the possible impacts of Bolsonaro’s exodus from Brazil.

The upheaval of the Brazilian right

Bolsonaro has promised to lead the opposition to Lula from abroad. “I will say what you cannot say and I will assume the risks you cannot take,” he said in a letter to his party’s political representatives on Wednesday.

But Bolsonaro’s move to Miami complicates that commitment, analysts say, leaving a power vacuum within Brazil’s right, which had united around Flávio’s presidential candidacy. His father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, named him his political heir last December. The elder Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempt a coup d’état.

“Flávio’s departure, as well as the difficulty of leading the process from a distance and all the criticism he risks facing for having declared that he would not flee and then fleeing, risks weakening him,” said Carlos Melo, professor of political science at Insper University.

But as a political force, the right may lose neither its influence nor its impact after leaving office because of its gains in Congress, said Luciana Santana, a political scientist at the Federal University of Alagoas.

“The congressional group has instruments to block proposals, negotiate with the government and challenge the public agenda,” Santana said.

Impact on the global far right

A Bolsonaro victory would have brought Brazil in line with many of its regional neighbors, where conservatives have swept to power in seven presidential elections in 18 months.

In much of Latin America, voters fed up with rising crime rewarded presidential candidates promising to restore order. From Keiko Fujimori from Peru has Abelardo de la Espriella of Colombianewly elected conservatives courted Trump while taking inspiration from El Salvador’s president Nayib Bukeleincluding sweeping gang crackdown sharply reduced homicides at the cost of mass arrests and suspension of civil liberties.

Bolsonaro’s defeat is a setback for the far right in the region and beyond, as it ends his rise to the presidency of an economic powerhouse in the region that has significant diplomatic clout, Santana said.

But Lula’s victory will not necessarily result in an overall weakening of the movement, she added. In addition to the gains in Congress, Flávio obtained almost 60 million votes, demonstrating the competitiveness of the movement in Brazil.

Beyond Brazil’s borders, the international repercussions of Flávio’s flight depend on how this episode will be interpreted.

“Bolsonaro’s flight may be used by international networks as a symbol of alleged persecution. This could mobilize those who identify most strongly with the movement,” Santana said.

Tense relations between Washington and Brasilia

As congratulations poured in from Brazil’s allies and rivals around the world, Trump suggested Monday, without providing evidence, that Lula’s re-election was “rigged.”

But asked on Wednesday about Bolsonaro’s claim that he was the “legitimate elected president of Brazil” – a term the defeated candidate later softened to “leader of Brazil” – the US president said he would make no comment. Instead, Trump said he gave Bolsonaro a “pass” to enter the country.

“I won’t get involved,” Trump said, before repeating that the election was “very strange.”

Lula’s victory consolidates Latin America’s most populous country and largest economy as counterweight to Washington and limits Trump’s desire to tighten his grip on the Western Hemisphere.

Lula defended Brazil’s long tradition of non-alignment, cultivating ties with competing powers. His government deepened trade links with China and sought greater global influence through BRICSa group of emerging economies.

While Bolsonaro’s presence in the United States adds “a new layer of problems to already complicated bilateral relationship,” it is unlikely to be decisive, said Oliver Stuenkel, a political scientist and fellow at the Carnegie Endowment think tank.

While there will now be two Bolsonaro brothers potentially lobby the US government in the name of specific policies toward Brazil, it remains to be seen whether Washington will heed such calls, Stuenkel said.

“Either Trump will take a pragmatic stance and fundamentally recognize that the US pressure to elect Flávio has failed (…) or the friction will continue,” he said.

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