The San Francisco 49ers will travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons and try to maintain their unbeaten streak. Monday night’s win over Washington was hard-fought, especially after Mike Evans left the game with an Achilles injury. Still, the 49ers withstood the Commanders’ comeback attempt and improved to 6-0. The question is which receivers will be available for Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy, and how the game plan needs to change without Evans on Sunday.
Now, Evans isn’t ruled out, but for now it seems wise to hold him off until after the bye week. As simple as that sounds, that still leaves the 49ers with potentially Brandin Cooks, Jordan Watkins, Jacob Cowing and potentially Christian Kirk, in some capacity. Yeah, I didn’t like writing that as much as you didn’t like reading it.
Did Washington leave any breadcrumbs for Atlanta on the defensive Monday night after Evans left?
I believe the Commanders tipped Atlanta’s hand a bit regarding their potential strategy in the second half of Monday night’s game. Coming into the game, the Commanders were second in the NFL in blitz rate. The first half featured modest blitz numbers as Brock Purdy and Mike Evans marched down the field. Once Evans left, the Commanders spammed blitz after blitz in the second half, increasing the first half’s percentage from the 20s to the 70s.
Washington wanted to speed up Purdy, and without splitters or receivers he trusted, the offense stalled. To be honest, I don’t blame Purdy at all for the second half. When you have receivers colliding and not getting proper spacing and timing (I’m looking at you, Cooks and Watkins), Purdy can’t make anticipatory throws to receivers he doesn’t trust.
So what will Atlanta do with Jeff Ulbrich as defensive coordinator? In years past, including last year, Atlanta led the league in blitz rate. This year, the blitz rate has gone in the opposite direction. The Falcons are 25th in the NFL with a blitz rate of 25.9%. You can expect a total increase, as the Falcons are in cover 3 38.3% of the time, and giving Purdy time in the pocket allows him to break up zone coverages.
You can expect an increase in the coverage concept, namely man coverage, in coverage 1 (21.1%). Until the 49ers prove they have receivers the secondaries should worry about, the blitz will continue. If the receiver group can prove they can separate and get the timing right, it will put the Falcons on their heels and the scales will tip toward the 49ers.
The chess match between Ulbrich and Shanahan will be fascinating. Shanahan will need to build a game plan around running the football, screens and quick throws until opportunities present themselves to attack downfield.
The good news is that this is a one-week issue, because after the bye, the 49ers can expect Evans, Demarcus Robinson and Deebo Samuel to return to action. Sunday’s game presents an interesting challenge for Shanahan, and it’s a matchup where his game plan and scheme should do the heavy lifting.
Gn sports
