The war in Iran was supposed to be a brief, brutal strike that would bring down the regime within weeks. Instead, the United States finds itself entangled in a conflict that is upending the global energy system.
As oil and gas prices skyrocket, there have been notable shifts in favor of clean energy, raising a deeply strange question: Could this war turn President Donald Trump into an accidental climate president, at least on the world stage?
It would be a profound irony if that were the case. Trump is the leading climate denier. He called global warming a “hoax,” clean energy a “scam,” promoted fossil fuels, and unveiled a raft of climate and environmental protections.
But as the war enters its eighth month, it highlights the immense vulnerability of fossil fuels to geopolitical instability. There are signs of global change in clean energy, although the situation remains complex, with some countries flocking to coal instead..
According to some experts, the longer the war continues, the more it could have a negative impact on global demand for oil and gas.
“With all of (Trump’s) efforts to encourage the use of fossil fuels, he could end up accelerating their phase-down,” said Samantha Gross, director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institution.
The outbreak of war against Iran by the United States and Israel in February caused the largest oil shock in history. Iran strangled the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that carried about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas, sending the price of a barrel of oil above $100.
Many analysts predicted that the price rise would be in the short term, but it has has persisted even as Iran’s grip on the strait has loosened. The costs of transporting oil through the Strait of Hormuz have increased, and new fronts are opening in the conflict, including attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis on Saudi oil installations and tankers.
All this affects demand. Last January, the International Energy Agency predicted that global oil demand would increase by 930,000 barrels per day in 2026. By September, the situation had changed dramatically. The IEA now forecasts a drop of 2.5 million barrels per day due to the “impasse” in negotiations between the United States and Iran.
Less oil means less planet-warming pollution. Global fossil fuel emissions are on track to decline by about 0.5% in 2026, according to an analysis by Carbon Brief, a nonprofit publication on climate change. This would be the first fall since 2020, when the Covid pandemic brought the world to a standstill.
It also means big changes in transportation, where most of the world’s oil is transported. People are driving and flying less, but these are likely temporary changes, said Sverre Alvik, vice president and director of energy transition perspectives at DNV, a Norway-based consultancy. The vehicles people buy are much more permanent.
Global sales of electric vehicles increased by 4% in the second quarter of 2026, according to the IEA, which said the crisis in the Middle East “has clearly strengthened the case for electric vehicles as a way to address energy security and fuel cost concerns.”
Australia and parts of Asia have seen an electric vehicle boom, as has Europe, where sales are expected to hit record levels in 2026, according to a report from the nonprofit. Transport & Environment defense group. Fuel prices have been a key factor, with diesel reaching particularly painful highs, up 38% since the start of the war.
The United States, however, is bucking the trend. Electric vehicle sales have plummeted as the Trump administration scaled back support and effectively banned cheaper Chinese models. They are down more than 30% this year, according to research firm Motor Intelligence.
Then there is natural gas. The conflict has caused “a major supply shock” to global gas markets, according to the IEA, which forecasts that global demand will decline by around 0.5% in 2026.
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Countries are looking for alternatives, and dozens have implemented policies aimed at switching from fossil fuels to clean energy since the war began. Harnessing sun and wind is not dependent on a few volatile choke points in the same way that oil and gas is.
“The new energy geopolitics favors clean energy solutions and electrification,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, director of the Global Energy, Climate, and Sustainability Lab at New York University.
Investment in solar capacity in Southeast Asian countries, for example, almost quadrupled in the first two quarters of this year, according to data from the Rhodium Group, an independent research organization. Most of the region’s liquefied natural gas comes from the Gulf, so they’ve had to “pivot faster,” said Tess Carter, associate director for energy and climate at Rhodium.
It will take time to see concrete evidence of an accelerated shift away from oil and gas, Gross said. The mass shift to electric vehicles and widespread grid-wide changes in electricity are long-term processes. “But I expect it to come,” Gross said.
That said, there is a catch. The transition to alternative energy options doesn’t just mean renewable energy; some countries have turned to coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel. Global coal demand is now expected to increase by 1.2% in 2026, a reversal of earlier forecasts that predicted a slight decline.
It’s also possible that demand for oil and gas will return: the IEA predicts an oil recovery in 2027. And we’ve already faced major global disruptions. Some environmentalists hoped the pandemic would lead to a shift toward clean energy. Instead, demand for fossil fuels increased in 2021.
The permanent nature of these changes may depend on the duration of the conflict. For every month this lasts, the likelihood of “permanent demand destruction” for oil increases, according to a DNV analysis. “If the war lasts four years, for example, then our analysis shows that oil demand will never return to the level we had in 2025,” said DNV’s Alvik.
Some hope that whatever happens, more permanent changes have already taken root. Iran has shown that drones and missiles are enough to choke a waterway – not a powerful navy. “The world cannot ignore what has happened, and the supply of oil and natural gas appears much more precarious than before the war,” said Gross of the Brookings Institution.
Rob Jackson, a climate scientist at Stanford University, said the conflict “could have a lasting effect as dozens of countries now promote electric vehicle incentives, charging infrastructure and electrification in general.”
However, he finds the idea that Trump is an accidental climate president “ridiculous.” It may have accelerated the adoption of clean energy abroad, but it gutted green energy in the United States and “set us back decades,” Jackson said.
“The forces driving green energy around the world – cleaner, cheaper fuels – will ultimately prevail against their will. »
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