Here are five risks to a lame duck chord:
👱♂️ President Trump himself. The White House says it supports the bill, but Trump is fickle, so nothing is final until it’s final.
- His administration’s willingness — or not — to loosen the screws on the wind and solar projects it restricts could also influence lame duck politics and complicate efforts to win support from Democrats.
- Flashback: Co-author Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) last month cited “unresolved” questions about whether Trump officials would return to “regular order” for renewable energy, but credited their proposal as “very reasonable.”
🗳️ A big blue wave. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), a senior House Democrat, argued that Democrats will have more leverage next year.
- So far, there is little evidence that this view is gaining traction among Democrats. The few definitive statements on the bill from lawmakers in both parties have been favorable. But a strong Democratic performance in November could change that calculus.
- The main arguments against waiting: Democrats won’t have 60 votes even if they advance to the Senate, and Trump has yet to sign anything, limiting prospects for a better deal next year.
🟩 Environmentalists. Groups with close ties to Democrats — such as the Natural Resources Defense Council, the League of Conservation Voters and Evergreen Action — are still weighing their positions on the bill.
- Coordinated action against the measure could make it harder for Democratic lawmakers to support the legislation.
⚡ Utilities. Regulated utilities would see new competition in transportation development and greater oversight of their planning and operations.
- American Electric Power and Berkshire Hathaway Energy support the bill, but the industry’s trade group — the Edison Electric Institute — has not taken a position.
⏰The lame duck squeeze. A busy legislative calendar, potential changes to the bill and uncertainty over lawmakers’ appetite for legislation after the election could leave too little time to ensure it passes both chambers.
- Already, House Energy and Commerce Chairman Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) told Punchbowl News he wants to change the electricity provisions.
- If Republicans lose the majority in the House, their drive to get a major bipartisan deal across the finish line could diminish.
- “It’s hard to convince people to stay and wait for something to happen when they’re constantly reminded that they lost,” Jeff Navin, a former Democratic Hill staffer and co-founder of the clean-tech lobbying firm Boundary Stone Partners, said by email.
The bottom line: This is a partial list!
- To borrow Mickey Rourke’s advice to William Hurt in the great 1981 film noir “Body Heat,” there are 50 ways to screw up any bill, and if you can think of 25, you’re a genius.
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