House Democrats appear to be flirting with one of the biggest popular election victories in decades.
The CNN poll shows them leading the so-called “generic” poll by 9 points, largely thanks to the historic unpopularity of President Donald Trump. The last time either party won the popular vote in the House by at least 10 points in the midterms was 1986.
But even more than for the Senate, the battle for the House is difficult to follow. There are so many races – 435 to be exact – and it’s hard to know which ones are important. How do we know if Democrats are simply fighting for the 218 seats needed for a majority – which they are expected to win – or if they are building a wave?
The road to the 2026 midterm elections begins now
We’ve picked a few races that will indicate whether Democrats gain seats, whether that’s enough for the majority, and whether there’s a surge or even a tsunami.
Follow these races on election night to find out how well Democrats are doing.
These are the kind of races Democrats really have should be a winner, whatever the circumstances.
1st District of California: This should be the easiest choice for Democrats, after the district was redrawn to be one that would have favored Kamala Harris by 12 points in 2024. GOP Rep. James Gallagher is seeking reelection, but if Democrats can’t win here, they’re in for some shocking results.
Nebraska’s 2nd District: Given the retirement of moderate Republican Rep. Don Bacon and the slight blue trend of this Omaha-area district, this one should be a victory for Democratic political activist Denise Powell.
New Jersey’s 7th District: This is a swing district in a state that has tilted Democratic between the 2024 presidential election and the 2025 national elections. Combine that with the unexplained months-long absence of Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. — he later cited treatment for depression — and the fact that a prominent Republican super PAC recently pulled money from this district, and the signs of a Democratic takeover are there.
These are the seats where victory should mean Democrats clear the low bar for a majority in the House. (Technically, they need to flip three Republican seats, but mid-decade GOP redistricting effectively raised that threshold by a handful of seats.)
Arizona’s 6th District: It would seem telling that Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani didn’t show up a few weeks ago when Trump was in Arizona for a rally. (Republican candidate Jay Feely, who is running in the state’s open 1st District, wasn’t there either.) Ciscomani holds a true swing district that should be quite accessible to Democrats if they have a good night.
Iowa’s 3rd District: Republican Rep. Zach Nunn made headlines in September by voting to limit Trump’s authority over the Iran war. He comes from a district that favored Trump by 4 points in 2024, but Democrats appear to be gaining ground in Iowa — competing to flip three House districts and win Senate and gubernatorial elections.
34th District of Texas: The GOP made Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez’s district one that Trump would have won by 10 points. House Speaker Mike Johnson has banked on winning seats like this, saying at a recent campaign event, “South Texas will literally decide the majority in Congress.” But polls show that Hispanic voters have since moved significantly toward Democrats. This means they really should keep this seat if they want to win a majority.
If Democrats win these seats, they are likely looking at at least one runoff election.
6th District of Kentucky: This district, which Republican Rep. Andy Barr is leaving to run for Senate, favored Trump by 15 points, but Republican candidate Ralph Alvarado began to move significantly away from Trump in August. This will also be the first marquee House race where polls close (at 6 p.m. Eastern).
Montana’s 1st District: This is another open-seat race in a double-digit Trump district that has looked competitive for some time. And Democrats have chosen the type of candidate who looks like they could put it in play: populist labor leader and former smoker Sam Forstag, who will take on Republican Army veteran Aaron Flint.
1st District of Pennsylvania: In this swing district, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick — perhaps the House Republican Party’s preeminent moderate — has proven remarkably resilient over the years. In fact, he won by 13 points in 2024, even though Trump narrowly lost his district. But these are the kind of incumbents who tend to lose out in a wave.
Winning these districts would make 2026 one of the biggest midterms in recent history.
Colorado’s 4th District: GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert has had her share of personal problems (see: “Beetlejuice”). But she was supposed to be safe when she moved to a deep red district in eastern Colorado in the 2024 election. The combination of her problems and the environment puts this Trump +18 district in play.
2nd District of Missouri: GOP Rep. Ann Wagner won by double digits in 2022 and 2024, but a spirited challenge from Democrat Fred Wellman put this race on the radar screen. The district isn’t extremely conservative at Trump +8, but Wagner has proven to be a solid incumbent — the kind you wouldn’t really expect to lose.
New York’s 21st district: Last year, one of the first big signs of Democrats’ electoral momentum was when Trump withdrew Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination for United Nations ambassador because Republicans feared losing her Trump +21 constituency in a special election. It was virtually unthinkable at the time that they would also have to defend it in general elections, when such upheavals are nowhere near as frequent. But Stefanik is retiring and it’s possible that Republican candidate Anthony Constantino will lose.
If these seats turn blue, Tuesday could be a Republican drubbing of epic proportions.
2nd District of Kansas: If Democratic vet Don Coover can upset Republican Rep. Derek Schmidt in this Trump +20 district, it will likely be because Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton did so well that his tails pushed Coover over the line.
9th District of Texas: When Republicans redrew this state’s congressional map to try to win up to five additional seats, this district — which Trump also would have won by 20 points — was supposed to be the second-easiest of the five. But some outside GOP groups decided to support Republican Alex Mealer after a poll showed a single-digit race.
At-Large District of Wyoming: Handicapper Inside Elections recently turned heads by changing this open statewide race, where Trump won by 46 points, from “solid Republican” to just “likely Republican.” He cited Trump’s problems and how divisive Republican Party Secretary of State Chuck Gray is. If Democrat Lisa Kinney can achieve this, the 2026 election will be historic.
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