How to think about the midterm elections – and the political moment the country finds itself in: NPR
President Donald Trump speaks to the media during a Halloween party at his Mar-a-Lago club October 31, 2026 in Palm Beach, Florida.
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images North America
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Andrew Harnik/Getty Images North America
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President Trump was elected in 2024, largely, with a mandate to lower prices. But that didn’t happen. Instead, Trump is facing record approval ratings and record intensity of opposition, and voters are blaming him for prices that have continued to rise since he took office for the second time.
Most presidents get more blame and credit than they deserve for the economy. But the war against Iran and the tariffs imposed by Trump have directly led to an increase in the prices of goods and energy.
The economy is increasingly divided: the rich are doing well, largely because of rising stock portfolios dominated by AI companies, while ordinary Americans are turning against AI data centers, struggling because of inflation that is outpacing wages, a poor job market, and gradually rising interest rates. These rates make it harder to buy a home or car, leaving millions of people feeling like they are treading water.
The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll showed that a majority — 44% — said their finances had mostly stayed the same, and another 38% said their economic situation had worsened. Only 15% said their situation had actually improved from a financial point of view.
Add to that disapproval of the administration’s tough immigration enforcement tactics, cuts to domestic spending on programs like Medicaid and other health care programs, and reductions in government regulations and staffing, and it angers influential voters and inflames Democrats.
As a result, the president’s party risks paying the price. Midterm elections are usually difficult for the presidential party.
History is not on the Republicans’ side this year
The President’s Party has only seen the President’s Party twice since World War II won House seats in midterm elections. On average, the president’s party loses 26 seats in the midterms, and the situation is worse when a president’s approval rating is below 50%, like Trump’s. When this is the case, presidents’ parties have lost an average of 35 seats. When they exceed 50%, they still lose seats, but only 15 on average, or 20 seats better than when a president is unpopular.
The fact that presidential parties lose seats in the midterms is something that Trump himself has repeatedly acknowledged at campaign events.
Meanwhile, Democrats have had political successes during Trump’s term. They consistently outperformed in special elections, which are indicators of midterm prowess, and they cleaned house in the off-year elections of 2025. Since then, the political landscape has only gotten worse for Republicans due to the unpopular war in Iran that led to a spike in gas prices.
All of this points to Democratic gains this cycle. They are favored to take control of the House, and they are on pace to win the Senate, which was considered a failure earlier this cycle.
Democrats have potential limits
While the landscape has undoubtedly shifted more in favor of Democrats in recent months, the extent of likely potential gains is unclear.
One of the main reasons for this is structural. Looking at the Cook Political Report’s ratings, there are about 30 fewer competitive districts — those classified as lean or struggling — this year compared to 2018, when Democrats won a net gain of more than 40 House seats.
Mid-decade redistricting also helped isolate Republicans this cycle, although only marginally. After all the redistricting battles across the country, with Trump explicitly pushing GOP-led state legislatures for more Republican seats, an NPR analysis shows that Republicans gained an estimated 8-seat advantage through redistricting.
Depending on how Latinos in South Texas, in particular, vote, those gains could be lower.
While the Republicans face significant headwinds and the Republican Party is not viewed favorably by viewers, the Democratic Party is not viewed positively either. Democrats have struggled to contend with a base of voters who should be Democrats but are restive and dissatisfied with the party.
That said, the latest NPR poll showed that self-identified “democratic socialists” were very engaged in these midterm elections and strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing.
As the old saying goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. This group of voters could vote in large numbers in this election to check Trump: 44% of respondents said their vote was a vote against Trump, while 21% said it was a vote for him. But there will likely be a clash of ideals and approaches on the left in the coming months, with the Democratic presidential primaries.
And make no mistake, the 2028 elections begin almost immediately after these midterm elections. These are open elections – the first after Trump, after Obama-Biden, after Clinton and Bushes. Candidates who want to make a splash and need a national boost tend to announce themselves sooner rather than later. Think: January, February.
It is important to remember that nothing is certain until the results are known. Much will depend on Republican turnout.
This is why Trump was deployed to red states to try to push and plead with his base to get out and vote. Without strong Republican turnout in these places, a one or two seat victory for Democrats in the Senate can quickly turn into six or seven seats.
Be prepared for surprises. But if Democrats don’t win the House, it would be the shock of all shocks and would represent a polling error the likes of which we haven’t seen in this century.
Prepare to be patient
While most states and districts will be called by the time people go to bed on election night, some will not. These lingering races could take place in key places, and given the margins, particularly in the Senate, party control may not be known for days or even weeks.
Trump is already setting the stage for allegations of a rigged election. It’s no surprise. He did this after every election that hadn’t gone his way before, in one way or another. After the 2020 election, his false claims of fraud led to the siege of the Capitol on January 6.
The latest NPR poll finds that most voters across party lines believe their state will hold a fair and accurate election and that their preferred candidate should accept the outcome, whatever it is.
But a quarter of Republicans said their candidate probably should not accept the results. This leaves room for potential chaos and misinformation if the election is close and not decided for weeks.
Trump has clearly held back the Republican Party this cycle. You don’t have to believe the polls to know that this is the case. Look at what the Republican candidates are doing. Their mentions in Trump ads during the primaries were dizzying.
Today, they are almost non-existent.
Republicans will privately admit that Trump is a double-edged sword: he is necessary for the base, but toxic for influential voters.
And that’s the story of Trump over the past decade — loved by an ardent portion of the country and hated by an even larger portion.
But this year, with economic strain on the population and continued U.S. involvement in the kind of ongoing war he has promised to keep the country out of, polls have shown consistently over a long period this year that his support among many who crossed the border to vote for him in 2024 has collapsed.
That hardly sets Trump and his party up for success on Tuesday and beyond — despite allegations of wrongdoing that will carry little weight. But that doesn’t mean either party will have a massive majority and compromise will be necessary to achieve big things.
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