Hurricane Nolo is strengthening. Should become Cat 3 on Sunday

Hurricane Nolo continues to move west as it pummels the Big Island of Hawaii with rain, winds and dangerous waves.

Nolo is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane by Sunday as it moves south of the island chain.

This is happening now

The storm began moving westward away from the Big Island at approximately 9 mph. All tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings have been discontinued. They were replaced with high wind warnings for parts of the Big Island and Maui County, where gusts of up to 75 mph are possible.

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Although most of the heaviest rains are now moving away from the islands, mudslides and flooding remain a concern. Strong winds are currently occurring across the Big Island and some wind-prone areas of Maui County, Oahu and Kauai.

Rainfall totals of more than 12 inches were reported on the Big Island.

What is the forecast?

Nolo continues to move west after remaining stationary for hours Saturday. The storm is expected to move into warmer waters over the next 24 hours, helping it strengthen into a major hurricane on Sunday.

The National Hurricane Center’s current forecast cone is shown below.

(MORE: What a Forecast Cone Really Means)

Impacts

Flood rains

As the storm passes south of the islands, heavy rain will continue to impact parts of the Big Island, Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe. Flood watches remain in effect in these areas.

Here is the maximum precipitation forecast from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. These peak totals are more possible on mountain slopes:

• Parts of the Big Island: An additional 1 to 4 inches is possible, bringing the storm total to 20 inches.
• Parts of Maui: An additional 2 inches is possible, bringing the storm total to 8 inches.

The National Hurricane Center warns that flooding and mudslides could still be seen, particularly in areas of steep terrain.

Be aware that flooding and debris can spread well beyond where the heaviest rain falls.

The Big Island and parts of Maui County were hit hard by flooding, mudslides and high winds from Hurricane Lala in mid-August, and some locations have recently recovered.

Winds

The best chance of winds capable of damaging at least a few trees and power outages is expected in parts of the Big Island and Maui County.

Additionally, wind gusts will likely be strongest at the tops and leeward sides of mountains throughout the island chain.

Coastal flooding, high waves

Larger swells produce dangerous surf and rip currents.

Nolo will continue to pose a threat of coastal flooding to parts of the Big Island through the weekend.

Big Island’s most powerful hurricane in decades?

According to the NOAA hurricane database, only one other major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) has occurred within a 150-mile radius of the Big Island.

It was Hurricane Dot in August 1959, which then struck Kauai after brushing the south of the Big Island.

Nolo is therefore the most significant hurricane impact on the Big Island in 67 years.

Fourth potential flood

This system will become the fourth to at least graze Hawaii, causing flooding and winds across most of the state.

First we had Hurricane Lala in mid-August, whose eyewall brushed the southern end of the Big Island. Torrential rain fell and gusty winds caused power outages to skyrocket.

(MORE: Lala Recap)

Tropical Storm Moke then hit further south than Lala, but still hit parts of the Big Island with rain and winds from its outer bands. The impacts of Moke were less significant, but flooding still occurred because the ground was still saturated from Lala.

Then there was Hurricane Lowell, a powerful hurricane that reached Category 5 at its peak. The storm weakened before passing close, but it hit the western islands with wind, rain and waves.

(MORE: Lowell Summary)