The hurricane season remains very active in the Pacific, with three hurricanes: Polo, Odalys, Nolo and Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. There is also another region of the Pacific whose development we are following in the days to come.
Activity is much lower in the Atlantic, where Fay is hanging on while battling the hostile conditions of an intensifying El Niño. There is also a new area of interest in the Atlantic.
Below we have the maps you need to track all of these systems, starting with the most active basin, the central and eastern Pacific.
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Pursuing the Pacific
Hurricane Nolo
Nolo passes south of Hawaii, but continues to bring strong wind gusts, as well as a threat of flooding and mudslides to parts of the island chain. We have a more detailed forecast here.
(MORE: Latest Hawaii Hurricane Forecast)
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Precipitation forecast for Hawaii
Odalys and Polo forecasts
Polo weakened again to a Category 5 hurricane on Thursday reaching speeds of 180 mph and remains an intense hurricane.
Although now a Category 3 hurricane, it is expected to track northeast and land on Baja California, Mexico, on Monday as a hurricane with damaging winds, torrential rain and storm surge.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for parts of the Pacific coast of the Baja Peninsula, north of Los Cabos.
The forecast trajectory and the latest information on Odalys are also presented on the map below. Odalys should not directly threaten the lands.
Some moisture from Odalys and Polo is expected to be drawn toward the southwest United States, fueling thunderstorms with torrential rain locally Monday through midweek.
Precipitation forecast
The map below shows where Polo’s heaviest rain could fall over the next five days in Mexico, along with the National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast cone in black.
This forecast is subject to change in the event of subtle changes to the Polo Track forecast.
Sea surface temperatures
Besides ocean temperatures, this map also shows another area that the National Hurricane Center monitors for possible tropical development.
The next two tropical storms in the Eastern Pacific will be named “Rachel” and “Simon”.
Pacific Tracks So Far This Season
Chasing the Atlantic
Sea surface temperatures
Fay, back in a tropical depression, may persist in clinging far from land above the central Atlantic Ocean.
You can see the active system on the sea surface temperature map below.
Wind shear
These are areas of high wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with altitude, which are shown in purple. Strong wind shear is hostile to mature tropical cyclones and those attempting to develop.
(MORE: What is wind shear)
Dry and dusty air
Another enemy of tropical systems is dry air.
During hurricane season, plumes of dust-laden air cross the basin from the African Sahara Desert, as you can see in the map below. This dry, descending air prevents the development of thunderstorms, the constituent elements of tropical storms and hurricanes.
The brown areas below are therefore generally unfavorable for development.
Atlantic tracks so far this season
These are the traces of systems that were at least tropical or subtropical storms, until now in the Atlantic basin.
Seasonal activity compared to average
Accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, is a metric that measures the total energy produced by tropical storms and hurricanes over a period of time, taking into account both their strength and duration.
This is another measure meteorologists use to gauge the activity of a hurricane season.
As you can see below, the Atlantic season has been historically calm, while the Pacific, particularly the Eastern Pacific, has been much more active than usual.
(MORE: Complete coverage of El Niño)
Accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, is a metric that measures the total energy produced by tropical storms and hurricanes over a period of time, taking into account both their strength and duration.
(Data: Phil Klotzbach/CSU)
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