Tropical Storm Isaias will become the first Atlantic hurricane of the season before significantly hitting the northern Gulf Coast with storm surge, flooding and high winds. It will then distribute its heavy rains inland over the East this weekend.
(MORE: Tropical Storm Isaias Map Tracker)
Where is Tropical Storm Isaias currently located?
Isaias is centered in the Gulf more than 400 miles south-southwest of New Orleans, moving east to northeast with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph.
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It is expected to strengthen into a hurricane Thursday morning, then quickly strengthen to reach at least category 2 Thursday evening in the central Gulf.
(MORE: Florida declares state of emergency in 25 counties)
The latest watches
Here are the latest watches from the National Hurricane Center, visible in the graphic below:
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Hurricane Watch: Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. These surveillances also extend to some extent inland, over far southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.
Tropical Storm Watch: Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line south of New Orleans to west of Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, and east of Indian Pass to Aucilla River, Florida. These watches also extend to much of interior southern Alabama and parts of southeastern Mississippi, north of any hurricane watch.
(MORE: What do all these tropical terms mean?)
Storm surge monitoring: Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida
Where Isaiah might go and when
Isaias will move northeast through Thursday, before accelerating and looping north toward the Gulf Coast.
You can see in the computer model forecast traces below that Isaias’ most likely landfall location is somewhere between the western Florida Panhandle and the Mississippi Gulf Coast Friday evening or early Saturday.
Beyond that, Isaias will be pushed far inland, over the southeast.
Much of the storm’s impacts will likely be felt along and east of its track.
(MORE: What to Know During Hurricane Season)
How strong could Isaiah be?
Isaias will initially benefit from Gulf water temperatures into the 80s and a humid air mass, both favorable for intensification over the next few days.
But with the jet stream sagging far to the south, Isaias will have to battle wind shear.
This is important because wind shear is hostile to developing and active tropical systems.
You can see the wind shear forecast below; darker purple and white colors indicate strong wind shear.
Since wind shear is expected to become stronger as Isaias moves northward, it is likely that it will lose some intensity as landfall approaches.
At this time, the most likely intensity as landfall approaches is a Category 2 hurricane.
Potential impacts
The greatest impacts will be felt along and east of the storm’s track and its inland remnants. This includes locations where storm surge flooding, high winds and isolated tornadoes could be felt near the Gulf Coast before and some time after landfall.
Storm surge
The map below shows the extent of flooding of normally dry land that could occur near the coast from water from the Gulf as central Isaias comes ashore later Friday and early Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
These values represent the maximum flood levels if the storm surge occurs around high tide.
Winds
Destructive winds are most possible in areas covered by hurricane and tropical storm warnings, shown in the graphic at the top of this article, from far southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle.
Strong winds could pick up as early as Friday midday and continue at least until Saturday morning.
Downed trees, power lines and power outages lasting hours or days are possible in these areas.
Precipitation
Heavy rain from Isaias could arrive along the Gulf Coast as early as Friday, then spread far inland through the remainder of the weekend.
Up to 10 inches of rain could fall locally near the Gulf Coast, with most receiving between 3 and 7 inches.
Local heavy rains are possible this weekend over most of the Southeast, the Appalachian Mountains, and parts of the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic.
Tornadoes
As is often the case with landfalling hurricanes, there is a threat of tornadoes in the outer rainbands as the center approaches landfall Friday and then possibly again Saturday in parts of the Southeast.
What you should do
If you are near the Gulf Coast, from southeastern Louisiana to Florida, monitor the latest forecasts for this system and prepare your hurricane plans.
Know if you live in an evacuation zone and what your evacuation route is, if asked by local authorities.
Prepare for power outages that could last at least several hours, if not several days.
If you are in the Southeast, including the Appalachian Mountains, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, be on the lookout for flash flooding this weekend. Avoid areas prone to flooding and never drive on flooded sections of road.
Impact risk
The map below shows the general risk associated with Isaias and its inland remnants, including flooding from precipitation, winds and storm surges near the coast. This map will be updated throughout the duration of the storm.
The impact levels on the map mean:
- “Aware” (yellow): Some significant impacts could occur. Check frequently for upcoming forecast updates.
- “Prepare” (orange): Wider and greater storm impacts are increasingly possible. Consider stocking up on supplies, planning for potential power outages, and knowing your escape or escape routes if you live in an area prone to storm surge or flooding from precipitation.
- “Alert” (red): impacts of the storm will happen soon or are already happening. Put your preparedness plan into action. Heed orders from local authorities to evacuate and stay in a safe shelter until the storm passes.
(MORE: Stay Prepared During This Hurricane Season)
How to pronounce Isaias
Isaiah (ees-ah-EE-ahs) is one of the hardest names to pronounce on this year’s list. To hear the correct pronunciation, listen here.
Isaias replaced “Ike” on one of the Atlantic name lists after that name was removed following the destructive and deadly 2008 hurricane.
It was not used in its first year of eligibility in 2014, since we only reached the eighth name, Hanna, that year.
However, the name was used in 2020 to refer to a storm that eventually moved up the East Coast with destructive winds.
Named storms so far in the Gulf
As El Niño continues to destroy some systems before they form and weaken those that are, three storms battled the conditions to gain names and impact the Gulf Coast states. These storms may not have been hurricanes, but they brought heavy rain to the area.
All systems like this need a window of opportunity with relatively less wind shear, even in El Niño-assisted conditions.
Traces of tropical storms Arthur, Bertha and Edouard.
Tropical Storm Arthur was a brief June storm that quickly reached tropical storm strength just before making landfall in Texas.
The depression quickly collapsed after moving toward the coast, but its remnants brought torrential rains to the Gulf Coast. Arthur actually brought 37.53 inches to Alexandria, Louisiana, which is the wettest rainfall total from an Atlantic tropical cyclone.
(MORE: Arthur Summary)
In July, Tropical Storm Bertha formed in the northeastern quadrant of the Gulf. It moved north before turning west and hitting the Biloxi Wildlife Management Area in St. Bernard Parish Wednesday afternoon, July 22. Rainfall totals of 1 to 5 inches were widespread with isolated totals exceeding 5 inches.
(MORE: Bertha Recap)
The next storm to impact the Gulf was Tropical Storm Edouard, which made landfall on September 1, 2026. Winds were around 60 mph at the time of landfall, and heavy rain was also reported.
Hurricanes can still form during strong El Niño years
Even though this hurricane season has proven to be one of the quietest on record, that doesn’t mean we can’t have an impactful tropical system or hurricane.
There have been seasons in the past that managed to produce strong storms despite a strong El Niño.
The image below shows several hurricanes that formed during the super El Niño seasons from 1972 to 2015.
Some hurricanes have occurred during the Atlantic super El Niño hurricane seasons (1972, 1982, 1997, 2015). Portions of hurricane tracks and intensity Category 3 and above are color coded. Note: We omitted 1991 because El Niño only reached the super criterion during the three-month period centered on December 1991. Other storms that occurred during these years are represented by white traces.
(NHC/NOAA)
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