In reliably blue Minnesota, could Democrats do the unthinkable and lose a Senate seat? | Minnesota

AAs Democrats fight to regain control of the U.S. Senate, hopes are growing in states — from Kansas to Texas — where they have not prevailed in decades. But in Minnesota, where Republicans haven’t won a statewide election since 2006, the race for an open Senate seat is closer than expected.

If Peggy Flanagan, the state’s Democratic lieutenant governor, wins the election, she will become the first Native American woman to serve in the U.S. Senate. But history is not yet written. The closely watched Cook Political Report this week changed its rating on the race from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”

Flanagan has made hundreds of stops across Minnesota this year, first in a contested primary where she beat a more moderate congresswoman, and now as she faces Republican challenger Michele Tafoya.

Tafoya, a more pragmatic choice for Minnesota Republicans than in previous U.S. Senate elections, has sought to present herself as a pro-choice Republican, although she has not made clear what her position is on abortion access. She also broke with the Trump administration over the Iran war after previously supporting it.

Unlike some Republicans who have sought support from Trump, Tafoya was not quick to accept the president’s recent support. “I heard about it,” she said.

Most polls have Flanagan ahead — but not by a wide margin, and lagging behind those built by Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic U.S. senator currently running for governor, in polls against her challenger, Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth. The most recent poll conducted by the Minnesota Star Tribune earlier this month showed Flanagan up four points.

Flanagan’s main handicap comes from his current job. As lieutenant governor in Tim Walz’s administration, she became embroiled in a large fraud problem within the state’s social services system. Without an incumbent on the ballot for governor or U.S. Senate, some voters may take their frustrations out on Flanagan.

Walz decided not to seek a third term as governor, after initially announcing he would, due to the fraud problem and the political response to it.

Republicans haven’t won a statewide race in Minnesota in 20 years. “There is a path. It’s not a wide path, but there is a path for Republicans,” said Blois Olson, an independent political analyst in Minnesota.

Even though Minnesota Democrats have dominated statewide elections for the past two decades, the state is not deeply blue: The state Legislature is now divided, with the House tied and Democrats controlling the Senate. Some see Flanagan, a progressive who supports the proposed Medicare for All model of universal health care, as further left than the state’s electorate.

“This sets up a race in which Republicans are as optimistic as anything,” Olson said. “But until the Republicans win statewide, you can’t think they’re going to win. It’s kind of like the Democrats in Texas.”

Trump’s approval rating among Minnesotans is at an all-time low. His influx of immigration agents into the state worries many and is featured in campaign ads against Republicans. Two American citizens – Renee Good and Alex Pretti – were killed by federal agents in Minneapolis during Operation Metro Surge earlier this year.

Trump has continued to attack the state and its leaders, and often attacks the state’s Somali population. In the only debate for Minnesota’s U.S. Senate seat before the general election, Tafoya did not say whether she would attend if Trump held a rally in the state.

National Republicans have yet to step in to support Tafoya — a signal that the race is not a top priority, or that their money is needed more to defend their seats in unexpected places, including Kansas.

Flanagan, at a union news conference earlier this month, said she always runs for office like she’s 10 points behind, including when she ran unopposed in the state legislative election while knocking on doors almost every night. In the primary, she noted, polls showed a close race between her and Craig, but Flanagan won by nearly 20 percentage points.

“I’ve always been underestimated, and that’s OK. It just means I work a little harder,” she said. “And frankly, there are more people in the state of Minnesota who understand that they’re in a hurry, and when the response to that pain from my opponent is to say that people should take one less trip to Starbucks and keep a stiff upper lip, that’s a slap in the face to working people across Minnesota.”

Tafoya did not respond to multiple requests for an interview.

Ssigns for Tafoya dot construction sites across the Twin Cities suburbs. Olson, the analyst, said he heard from people knocking on doors to talk to voters that people’s doorstep conversations in swing districts after the primary had changed.

“I have someone to vote for, and it’s not Mike Lindell,” he said, explaining what some Republicans thought of the pillow salesman and election denier who lost the party’s gubernatorial primary. Lindell had been endorsed by Trump.

Voters are also being moved by Flanagan’s social media ads, talking about the competitiveness of the race and offering his wild rice hot pot recipe to anyone who donates to his campaign.

Tafoya, 61, made a career as a sports journalist and worked for NBC as a sideline reporter covering the NFL. After leaving this position, she became a political commentator. She never ran for or held elected office.

Flanagan, 47, has, by contrast, spent her career in politics — first as an organizer, then moving up the ranks in elected office, from the school board to the state legislature to lieutenant governor.

Tina Smith, the Democrat who now holds the U.S. Senate seat, has decided not to run for re-election this year, saying she wants to retire and spend time with her grandchildren. Smith supported Flanagan in the primary and campaigned with her.

Tafoya, who needs independent and centrist votes to win in a left-leaning state, considers herself a pro-choice conservative. In her previous public comments on abortion, she said she supported banning abortion after 12 or 15 weeks.

During last week’s debate on Minnesota Public Radio, she couldn’t explain what her position entailed. “Reasonable access is reasonable access,” she said.

Minnesota Republicans need the votes of the anti-abortion community, as well as those of gun rights advocates and die-hard Trump supporters, said Michael Brodkorb, a commentator and former vice chair of the Minnesota Republican Party. Some, including a prominent pastor, said they would not vote for Tafoya because of his endorsement of abortion, regardless of the degree. One write-in candidate is running largely because she wanted voters to have an anti-abortion option on the ballot.

In her latest ad, Tafoya says she will stand up to Trump if necessary. “If she had conveyed that message from the beginning, then it would be more credible,” Brodkorb said.

Regarding fraud, Flanagan said she believes any form of fraud is unacceptable and supports tougher penalties and an independent inspector general. But, she said throughout his campaign, Walz said he was to blame for the fraud.

One of the central questions for voters involves someone not on the ballot: Trump, and whether the state’s next senator will exercise a check on presidential power. Flanagan said Tafoya would be a buffer for the president, citing his opponent’s previous reluctance to publicly depart from Trump’s positions. Tafoya said she would be “an equal opportunity pain in the ass for any corrupt career politician.”

“You have to vote for Michele Tafoya, who is a very respected person,” Trump said when he recently endorsed Tafoya. “It’s hard to win because they cheat in their elections too, you know, I thought I won Minnesota three times.”

Trump lost Minnesota three times. Minnesota hasn’t voted for a Republican president since 1972.

As soon as Trump endorsed Tafoya, Flanagan released a campaign ad emphasizing his support, with his stamp of approval likely being a negative to a portion of Minnesota voters.