Is Ethiopia on the brink of another civil war as fighting erupts in Tigray? | Conflict News

Intensifying fighting between Ethiopia’s federal army and forces in the northern Tigray region has raised fears that the peace deal that ended a devastating two-year war in 2022 could collapse.

The escalation came days after seven armed groups from across Ethiopia formed a new alliance aimed at overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, with each side of the conflict accusing the other of being behind the latest surge in violence.

The immediate fear for many in the country is a return to the war from which they have spent nearly four years trying to recover. Here’s what we know.

How did Ethiopia get here?

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, began as an armed movement against Ethiopia’s military government in the 1970s. It later became the dominant force in the coalition that governed Ethiopia for nearly three decades.

That influence was controversial in a country with many ethnic groups, where Tigrayans make up only about 6% of Ethiopia’s population. When Abiy became prime minister in 2018, he created the Prosperity Party to replace the governing coalition, significantly reducing the TPLF’s influence at the center of government.

Relations between Abiy’s government and the TPLF deteriorated until war broke out in November 2020. Federal troops, Eritrean forces and some fighters from the neighboring Amhara region fought Tigrayan forces. The conflict has killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions and left Tigray largely cut off from the outside world.

A peace agreement signed in Pretoria, South Africa, in November 2022, ended the large-scale war. But it did not resolve some of the differences that had helped fuel it.

What motivated the resumption of fighting?

One of the deepest disputes concerns western Tigray. Fighters from the neighboring Amhara region, who fought alongside the Ethiopian federal army during the 2020-2022 war, have taken control of western Tigray. Hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans have been driven from their homes, and Tigrayan leaders now want the territory returned and the displaced people allowed to return home.

However, many people in Amhara reject Tigray’s claim to the territory. They argue that western Tigray should not have been incorporated into Tigray when Ethiopia’s regional borders were redrawn in 1992, after the fall of the military government.

This conflict continues, even though the TPLF and the Amhara Fano National Movement have now joined the same alliance against the government of Abiy Ahmed.

The federal government also says Tigrayan forces kept the weapons they were supposed to surrender. Tigrayan leaders, in turn, say the government has failed to secure the withdrawal of other forces or allow displaced people to return home, particularly in western Tigray.

Political arrangements made after the war also collapsed. The TPLF faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael regained control of Tigray’s administration earlier this year, replacing an interim administration established under the peace deal.

“Since the end of the war, while the Pretoria Agreement has been in force, there have been consistent violations on both sides,” Jervin Naidoo, senior policy analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, told Al Jazeera. He said Tigrayans remained aggrieved by western Tigray, the presence of external forces and the region’s autonomy.

The government sees the TPLF differently. Naidoo said this would portray the group as “a belligerent group trying to destabilize Ethiopia”. But for Tigrayan leaders, he said, the resumption of fighting could be framed as a matter of protecting their region.

Who is part of the new alliance?

The creation of the Alliance of Ethiopian People’s Forces for Survival was announced this month by seven armed movements. Its most important members are the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). It also includes groups from Ethiopia’s Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz regions.

They have different goals and histories, but share a stated objective: to overthrow Abiy’s government.

Their agreement marks a striking reversal of the alliances formed during the last war, with Fano fighters who fought alongside federal troops against the TPLF now fighting alongside the TPLF.

The Pretoria Agreement helped to reshape these relations. It ended the war between Addis Ababa and the TPLF, but the Eritrean and Amhara forces, which supported the government, were not party to it. Both subsequently fell out with Abiy’s government.

The alliance extends beyond northern Ethiopia. The OLA has been fighting federal forces in Oromia, central Ethiopia, since 2018, while a faction of the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) joined despite a separate peace deal signed with the government that year. ONLF leaders in Ethiopia’s Somali region say they are not part of the new coalition.

Common opposition to Abiy does not mean the groups agree on Ethiopia’s future. Tigrayan and Amhara members still have competing claims to western Tigray. The government also accused Eritrea of ​​supporting the alliance. Eritrea has repeatedly denied supporting armed groups.

What is happening on the ground?

Small-scale clashes and drone strikes preceded this week’s escalation. Fighting then intensified in southern Tigray and spread to neighboring Afar and Amhara regions.

Each camp accuses the other of being at the origin of the latest major clashes. Tigrayan forces say they responded to a federal offensive involving ground troops and drones. The government side accuses the TPLF of having attacked first. As fighting continues, claims of individual attacks and territorial gains are difficult to independently verify.

“There was fighting overnight in the border town of Abala,” Al Jazeera’s Catherine Soi reported from Kenya. The city, located in northern Afar on the border with Tigray, was also affected by the previous war. Reports differ as to who controls the city. On another front, in Amhara, the Ethiopian army claims to have killed more than 270 rebel fighters. This figure has not been independently verified.

Tigrayan forces took control of Mekelle, Axum and Shire airports, disrupting civilian flights. The African Union says this seizure is incompatible with the Pretoria agreement. Around three-quarters of a million people remained displaced in Tigray due to the war that preceded this latest escalation.

Could this become a wider war?

There is a risk, but analysts say the conflict has not yet escalated into a full-scale civil war. The fighting has crossed the borders of Tigray and the federal government is already facing armed conflicts in other regions.

There is also a risk of regional escalation. Eritrea fought alongside the Ethiopian government in the previous Tigray war, but relations between the neighbors have since deteriorated, partly due to Abiy’s push for access to Red Sea ports. Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea of ​​supporting armed groups in Ethiopia.

The African Union called for an immediate end to the escalation and the resumption of negotiations under the Pretoria agreement. He called on former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who helped mediate the 2022 deal, to urgently engage the parties. The East African bloc IGAD also urged neighboring countries to avoid any action that could worsen the crisis.