Isaias threatens Gulf Coast after becoming first Atlantic hurricane of the season
Hurricane Isaias has formed in the Gulf, becoming the first Atlantic hurricane of the season and is expected to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast later this week.
TAKEAWAYS
- Hurricane Isaias has formed in the Gulf, becoming the first Atlantic hurricane of the season and is expected to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast later this week.
- Isaias is expected to be the first Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in the Lower 48 since devastating Hurricane Milton in 2024.
- Heavy rain is expected to begin Friday, with flash flooding, damaging wind gusts, storm surges and even tornadoes possible as the storm makes landfall.
- Landfall is currently expected between Friday evening and Saturday morning, but uncertainty remains over Isaias’ exact location and strength at that time.
Hurricane Isaias formed in the Gulf, becoming the first Atlantic hurricane of the season and is expected to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast later this week as a dangerous Category 2 hurricane.
Isaias is expected to approach the coast by Friday, with landfall currently estimated to be late Friday or early Saturday between Gulfport, Mississippi, and Panama City, Florida.
(FOX Weather)
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Alabama Governor Kay Ivey declared states of emergency ahead of the storm.
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Meanwhile, evacuation orders were issued for the entire west end of Dauphin Island in Alabama, as well as Zones A and B in Okaloosa County, Florida.
Hurricane Isaias strengthened from Tropical Storm Isaias Wednesday evening and is currently packing sustained winds of 75 mph and moving east-northeast at 9 mph.
In its 11 p.m. update, the National Hurricane Center kept Isaias at tropical storm level. About 30 minutes later, they issued a special advisory that Isaias had indeed become a Category 1 hurricane.
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Isaias’ forecast cone shows it heading directly toward the northern Gulf Coast, with impacts centered on about 30 million people in Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle.
A hurricane warning is in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida.
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A storm surge warning is also in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida, in the Big Bend region of the state.
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“The combination of dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the coastline,” the NHC said.
Currently, between 5 and 7 feet of rise are forecast for Mobile Bay and from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida.
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Heavy rain is expected to begin Friday, with flash flooding, damaging wind gusts, storm surges and even tornadoes possible as the storm makes landfall.
There is still some uncertainty as to the exact location and strength of Isaias when he landed.
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The Florida State Emergency Response Team began distributing fuel, water and food Wednesday, according to the governor’s emergency declaration.
Today, I signed Executive Order 26-202, declaring a state of emergency in 25 counties in anticipation of Tropical Depression 9. This order ensures that communities have the time and resources needed to prepare for possible severe weather impacts to Florida’s Panhandle and Big Bend region. Floridians should have their plans in place, keep emergency supply kits well stocked, and follow @FLSERT for weather updates and preparedness information.
– Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) October 7, 2026
Hurricane chasers are conducting regular reconnaissance missions into Hurricane Isaias to collect the latest forecast data.
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Isaias is expected to remain in the southern Gulf for much of Thursday, bringing heavy rain to the Yucatán Peninsula, before making a sharp turn toward the northern Gulf Coast as it is gripped by a sharp decline in the jet stream.
Tropical Storm Isaias has formed in the Bay of Campeche and forecasts from the National Hurricane Center show the storm strengthening into Hurricane Isaias. FOX Weather Correspondent Brandy Campbell is live with NOAA hurricane chasers as they take to the skies to investigate the strengthening storm.
The storm is expected to continue to strengthen and rapidly accelerate Friday morning, with heavy rain reaching parts of the Gulf Coast as early as Friday morning.
“Residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place,” the NHC said.
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The NHC also said it was increasingly likely that Isaias would become a significant hurricane when it reaches the coast.
(FOX Weather)
FOX hurricane weather specialist Bryan Norcross noted that several dynamic factors remain in play that will determine how strong and exactly where Isaias makes landfall, namely the angle of the storm’s approach and the impact of winds on the storm when it makes landfall.
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Some forecast models show Isaias weakening upon landfall, while others show the storm strengthening as strong winds in the atmosphere interact with it coming from the north.
Norcross said most of the storm’s most impactful weather would likely be on the right side of the storm’s center.
(FOX Weather)
Meanwhile, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a flash flood risk for Friday in parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, as well as southern parts of Tennessee, southwest North Carolina, and western South Carolina.
A Level 3 of 4 flash flood risk covers Mobile, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle west of Panama City. A Level 2 risk includes Atlanta and Montgomery, Alabama, and ultimately moves inland through Saturday to include the Carolinas and the Tennessee Valley.
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“Rainfall estimates currently show 6 to 10 inches with localized higher amounts, which will lead to flash and urban flooding and possibly river flooding,” the FOX Forecast Center said.
(FOX Weather)
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Severe Weather Risk of Level 2 out of 5 for Saturday across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, with a particular threat of tornadoes as the storm’s outer bands make landfall.
The system is expected to move quickly inland with heavy rain spreading across the Southeast on Saturday, triggering a wide risk of flash flooding from the Mississippi River to the Southeast coast.
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Gulf water temperatures are currently at their hottest levels on save dating from 1982. Warm waters are conducive to tropical development.
(FOX Weather)
Wind shear from El Niño caused a record start to the Atlantic hurricane season, with Isaias becoming the latest hurricane to form since the satellite era began in 1966.
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The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
This story is developing. Check back frequently for updates.
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