Israel elections: what happens next?

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Israelis voted Tuesday in historic elections, the first since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, in what many saw as a referendum on the controversial regime of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Turnout reached its highest level in more than two decades and was well above that of the previous November 2022 election, a strong indication of what the country’s citizens saw as the high stakes of voting.

What do the results show?

According to exit polls released Tuesday evening, neither Netanyahu’s far-right coalition nor the bloc of Jewish opposition parties, centered around Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, were on track to win an absolute majority, signaling a potential stalemate.

But as the count progressed, Netanyahu’s bloc appeared to be comfortably ahead of Eisenkot’s, even though he was short of a majority and with no clear path to closing that deficit.

With about 72 percent of votes counted, Netanyahu’s coalition group – which unites his Likud party with two ultranationalist and two ultra-Orthodox parties – is expected to win 54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, or Israeli parliament.

Yashar and three other Jewish opposition groups are expected to win 48 seats. Israeli Arab parties, which also oppose the current government, are expected to win the remaining 18 seats, which – if confirmed – would be a big increase from the 10 they held in the outgoing parliament.

Official results will depend in part on whether various smaller parties cross the 3.25 percent electoral threshold to be represented in the Knesset.

How does Parliament choose a Prime Minister?

It may take several days for Israel’s Central Election Commission to tally and formalize the vote count. By law, she has until November 4 to communicate the official results to President Isaac Herzog. In previous election cycles, officials have done most of the counting early, even though legal challenges could delay certification of the results.

Once this is done and each party is allocated its share of the 120 seats, Herzog will hold consultations with party officials about who they “recommend” to form a government.

It is important to note that this is not necessarily the leader of the largest faction, but the one considered to have the best chance of forming a governing coalition.

Once a politician receives a “mandate” from the president to form a government, he or she has 28 days – with the possibility of a 14-day extension – to negotiate the terms of such a coalition. In the event of failure, the president invites a second person to attempt the task within 28 days, with no possibility of extension.

Also in the event of failure, the president can give the Knesset 21 days to find an absolute majority of parliamentarians willing to support a third candidate, who will then have 14 days to form a government. Otherwise, the Knesset is dissolved and new elections are called.

Who can form a government?

In theory, Herzog could give the first “mandate” to form a government to a party with fewer seats if it had a better chance of forming a coalition. Former military leader Eisenkot’s Yashar is expected to win around 21 seats, according to partial vote counts.

Yet Eisenkot’s path to forming a coalition is not simple. As the four main Jewish opposition parties are unlikely to obtain an absolute majority of 61 seats, they would need the support – both explicit and tacit – of the two Arab Israeli political factions.

Eisenkot had indicated during the campaign his willingness to lead a minority coalition if necessary. This could be achieved with a simple majority in Parliament if Arab parties helped form a government. Although legally possible, this has never been attempted in Israeli history.

But some opposition leaders have already rejected the idea, with Avigdor Lieberman – former defense minister and leader of the right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu party – previously ruling out such a scenario.

The mandate could also go to Netanyahu and Likud – which is expected to be the largest party in parliament with around 27 seats – although its path to forming a majority coalition will be complicated by the fact that all opposition factions have ruled out serving under its leadership.

The actual vote count – if it stands – would strengthen his claim to receive the mandate as leader of a bloc that would need only a handful of additional members to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority.

If an impasse and new elections loom, Herzog could also urge Netanyahu and Eisenkot to come together in a unity government with a rotating prime ministership, as happened in April 2020. It remains unclear – and highly controversial – which politician will occupy the top prime ministership in such an arrangement.

Netanyahu claimed victory within the “Jewish camp” and urged his Zionist rivals to shun Arab parties and join his “national right” government.

What else can Netanyahu do?

In the event Netanyahu fails to form a government, opposition leaders and civil society activists are increasingly concerned that he and his supporters will refuse to recognize the results, potentially fomenting a constitutional crisis.

The first session of the new Knesset is scheduled by law for November 10, during which the opposition is expected to replace the current speaker of parliament, Likud official Amir Ohana.

In 2020, another Likud Knesset speaker initially refused to leave his post and threatened to ignore a Supreme Court ruling on the issue. Ohana has made statements in the past indicating that he may not respect the rulings of the highest court.

The threat of a new US-Israeli offensive against Iran also looms, something Netanyahu and President Donald Trump have pledged to implement – although a new campaign is seen as unlikely before next week’s US midterm elections.

Netanyahu has repeatedly warned that Israel faces an existential threat from Iran and has vowed to restart the war.

But many Israelis fear that doing so before forming a new government — while Netanyahu would still be transitional prime minister — could upend the government formation process and spark a regional conflagration.