The war in Iran could shift into high gear after the midterm elections, as a third aircraft carrier heads to the region and President Trump has warned all hell could break loose.
The USS Theodore Roosevelt, a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, was en route to the Middle East – joining two other aircraft carrier task groups in the region, the USS George Washington and the USS George W. Bush.
President Trump told Kansas City radio station KCMO on Friday that the war was “going to end soon” – without specifying how.
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Connecticut), a critic of the war against Iran who said he had been briefed on fairly detailed planning for what the war plan would be if the United States resumed operations, teased the idea during an Oct. 29 appearance at the Middle East Institute: “Their plan is insane. It will lead to a devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law.”
He did not provide details, but mentioned civilian infrastructure that could be targeted. “The plan that they have developed will lead, in my opinion, to a prolongation and escalation of this war which, in my opinion, will be devastating to our security interests,” he said.
Another lawmaker, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), who recently spent time with President Trump, predicted the war would soon be over. “I guess about a day or three after this election, I wouldn’t want to be close to Iran,” he said during a campaign stop Thursday.
If war breaks out after the midterms, Iran’s four ruling hardliners could soon find targets on their backs – and explosives in their pockets.
Mossad’s former deputy chief of global operations, Oded Ailam, told the Post that a dramatic “Operation Grim Beeper”-style attack aimed at wiping out the junta’s leaders remains fully on the table.
“This is the bread and butter of Israeli strategy, these are surprising twists and turns, unexpected moves and I am absolutely certain that Israel has cards up its sleeve that will be used,” Ailam told the Post.
On September 17 and 18, 2024, Israel detonated thousands of explosive-laden pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon and Syria in a covert operation that killed dozens, injured thousands, and severely weakened the terrorist group.
Iran’s political leadership, consisting of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf, as well as the newly installed Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, are mere figureheads, and the country is in reality ruled by a military quadrumvirate, according to Ailam.
“The president and the foreign minister cannot make decisions. (The military junta) is hiding behind Mojtaba, but he is not in charge; he is a real puppet,” Ailam said.
The four leaders are Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ahmad Vahidi, Commander of the Basij Forces Hossein Taeb, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Army Ali Abdollahi and Supreme Secretary for National Security Mohsen Rezaei.
List of hardliner hit lists
American and Israeli forces could target these four Iranian leaders.
- Ahmad Vahidi, Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corpswhose troops were responsible for the appalling massacre of 75,000 demonstrators during anti-regime demonstrations in January. Vahidi is sanctioned by the United States and the European Union for his role in global terrorism and for his quest for nuclear weapons.
- Hossein Taeb, commander of the Basij forceswhose paramilitary group was also responsible for the massacre of protesters in January, was appointed by Ayatollah Mujtaba Khamenei with a mandate to expand the Basij’s intelligence-gathering capabilities and increase its numbers to further suppress dissent.
- Ali Abdollahi, head of the Iranian armed forcessanctioned by the U.S. Treasury and known for its belligerence, he called America “the great Satan” and threatened that any Gulf Arab country allied with the United States would be “engulfed in the flames of war.”
- Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Mohsen Rezaeione of the founding military leaders of the Islamic Republic, has an Interpol Red Notice for his role in the 1994 bombing of the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, which killed 85 people.
While all four leaders expect to be targeted if strikes resume and are likely taking intense precautions to protect themselves from U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, the Jewish state has been planning surprise attacks on Iran for years, Ailam said.
“Israel will use its imagination, its intelligence and the capacity of the Israelis to surprise and turn the situation around in a way that you cannot predict,” he said.
Vahidi, Rezaei and Taeb are all responsible for the brutal massacre which saw up to 75,000 Iranian protesters massacred during the January uprisings.
The conventional Iranian military has not been involved in attacks against Iranians, sources said.
The four men had long thwarted attempts by political leaders to reach a deal with the United States, believing that closing the Strait of Hormuz gave Iran the advantage and that Trump would soon buckle under pressure, Ailam said.
“In February, the Iranians violated their own agreement. Araghchi was taken by surprise: he did not understand the logic of violating the agreement they had reached,” Ailam said.
The IRGC reportedly displeased Iran’s foreign minister in February when he announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after Araghchi announced its reopening as part of a deal with the United States.
Even within the military junta, cracks are appearing as economic sanctions and the U.S.-imposed military blockade continue to wreak economic havoc on the regime.
“They themselves are not on the same wavelength, we see a lot of friction within the regime, different approaches, agreements and then backing down,” Ailam said.
Vice President Vance recently sent a letter to Rezaei in an attempt to restart negotiations between the United States and Iran, but the regime has not yet responded.
Retired US general Jack Keane said US and Israeli strikes should target leaders, while destroying the nuclear enterprise, national energy infrastructure and ballistic missile and drone facilities.
“The intelligence we have today, the result of six months of collection during the intermittent ceasefire, is significant,” Keane said.
If Israel is able to pull off a strategic surprise that wipes out Iran’s remaining leadership, the psychological effect it could have on the regime could be even more devastating than a ground invasion, Ailam said.
“The effect is enormous, especially on the psychology of the enemy. Imagine that after the attack there is a conversation somewhere in a bunker with the highest Iranian echelons and everyone looks left and right and thinks the guy next to him is a spy,” Ailam said.
Any US-Israeli strike would be met with fierce retaliation from the Iranian regime, which would be fighting for its very survival.
“(The regime’s) interest is to survive; they will fight harder,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based foreign policy think tank.
He said Iran would seek to generate as much suffering as quickly as possible by hitting the energy and civil infrastructure of surrounding Gulf Arab countries – and possibly Israel.
An attack on Israel would open the door to a massive response from the Jewish state, former IDF Major General Yaakov Amidror said.
“If Iranian retaliation involves destroying or attempting to destroy energy facilities in Gulf countries, that would be a good excuse for Israel to destroy all energy infrastructure in Iran,” Amidror said.
“This is something that cannot be rebuilt in a few years, it will take Iran back 50 years,” he added.
Amidror said a decapitation strike against Iran’s military leadership was possible if war resumed, but stressed that Israel’s top priority would be to neutralize the regime’s nuclear and missile capabilities.
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