Jerusalem
Israel faces weeks, if not months, of political limbo after final results show there is no clear winner in the election.
Neither of the two main blocs – one led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party, the other led by the centrist Yashar party of his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot – reached the required majority of 61 seats to form a government in the 120-seat Israeli parliament.
So how do you form a new government?
Certainly, this does not seem easy, as deep-rooted political and ideological divisions make any seemingly simple coalition almost impossible.
Yet it is possible, even if the result is a tenuous alliance that survives little more than a year or so in power. If party leaders fail to figure this out in the 12 weeks they have, then Israelis will be back at the polls.
Here are some potential scenarios that could avoid this.
On paper, the opposition’s surest path to ousting Netanyahu lies in Jewish-Arab cooperation. And that is his biggest obstacle.
Two of the leaders of the opposition bloc’s right-wing parties, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, oppose any government that depends on the two Arab parties in parliament – the Joint List and Raam – whether within the coalition or as outside supporters of a minority government. The two leaders have hardened their positions since the attack carried out by Hamas on October 7, 2023.
Only one government in Israel’s history has benefited from the full participation of an Arab party. Raam was part of an eight-party coalition that succeeded in ousting Netanyahu in 2021, but collapsed just after a year in power.
Even without forming a government, opposition parties could still work together and leverage their parliamentary majority to replace the Knesset speaker, as well as other key positions, and thus force Netanyahu’s interim government to remain in power. But the prospects of putting together a coalition to replace him as Israel’s leader remain very complicated and politically charged.
Another option would see the implosion of the two blocs in favor of a unity government. Netanyahu’s Likud party would certainly be involved, alongside some of its existing coalition partners, as well as – crucially – at least one party from the opposition bloc.
In this case, Netanyahu would be ready to part ways with his far-right National Security Minister Ben-Gvir – but not with far-right Finance Minister Bezazel Smotrich and the ultra-Orthodox parties.
Eisenkot, however, has ruled out sitting down with Netanyahu, and many Israelis desperate to see the return of “Bibi” would consider it an act of betrayal if he changed his mind.
Another scenario could see Netanyahu encouraging defections from opposition parties or individual lawmakers.
But the four leaders of the opposition bloc – Eisenkot, Bennett, Liberman and Yair Golan – said they would not sit alongside him. And with Netanyahu’s bloc short by eight seats, persuading eight individual defectors sets a high bar.
While all these possibilities are discussed in the background, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will hold a series of very public consultations with the leaders of the parties that have gained access to Parliament.
Once he has solicited their opinions, he will task one of these leaders with attempting to form a government. Arab parties are expected to voice their support for Eisenkot, and Yashar’s leader may therefore be asked to go first.
Whoever gets the green light will have 28 days to complete the work, with a possible 14-day extension if necessary.
If all this comes to nothing, the president will ask a second leader to take a chance. They only have 28 days to fix the problem.
After that, a majority of Knesset members could ask the president to nominate a third candidate, who would then have 14 days to form a coalition.
If none of these measures produce a breakthrough, there will be new elections.
The person who seems best placed to accommodate this timetable is Netanyahu. As interim prime minister, he can afford to wait: if his main rival Eisenkot gets the first shot – and fails – the mandate will likely pass to him. And if he also fails, the political impasse appears to lead Israel into another round of elections – with Netanyahu remaining in power for months, until another government is formed.
A new election – which would take place no earlier than next spring – is a real possibility, as these results are expected to return Israel to a state of political paralysis and it would be the seventh general election in eight years.
Gn headline
