Last-minute NFL Week 10 picks, best bets: Chiefs, Steelers take advantage of scheduling quirk

Quarterbacks make history almost every week in the NFL, but Week 10 features several fascinating storylines developing under center. For example, three are expected to make their first career start Sunday with rookies Fernando Mendoza and Carson Beck as well as second-year quarterback Kyle McCord. On top of that, Kirk Cousins ​​is expected to begin his return to Minnesota after being acquired at the trade deadline, as is Jacoby Brissett, who the Ravens traded to help cushion the blow of losing Lamar Jackson.

As you can see just by looking at this shakeup at quarterback, the consequences of the trade deadline are going to have ripple effects that will ripple throughout the league. Naturally, this adds another element for bettors to consider as they prepare their picks for Week 10. To help you sort through last week’s madness, we’ve rounded up some last-minute best bets for the slate as well as picks for every other game on the schedule.

Note: Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay are bye in Week 10.

All lines via DraftKings; All times ET

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC, stream: Fubotry for free)

There is arguably no hotter offense right now than the Bengals. During their four-game winning streak, they averaged over 35 points per game and Joe Burrow played at an MVP level. The Cincinnati QB has 18 total touchdowns in this stretch and a passer rating of 132.0. Simply put, they have been a bulldozer. However, I think it’s worth pointing out who they played against during their winning streak: against the Dolphins, against the Ravens (no Lamar Jackson), against the Titans, and against the Falcons. It’s not exactly a feud between murderers.

Pittsburgh, who beat these Bengals in Week 3, should provide a lot more resistance than they’ve faced recently. The Steelers defense is tied for the fifth-lowest yards per play average (5.0), tied for the fourth-lowest passing rating allowed (18.0) and tied for the eighth-lowest passer rating allowed (83.3). Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s defense is tied for the most yards per rushing attempt allowed so far this season (5.0), allowing Jaylen Warren to continue his rise as one of the true players of the season.

On top of that being a potential mismatch for the Bengals facing this strong Steelers team, their schedule around this game isn’t doing them any favors either. While they will be at home in Week 10, Cincinnati is coming off an international match in Madrid last week. As for the Steelers, they just finished their bye week, which creates a significant rest gap. All of this is a recipe for upheaval.

Projected score: Steelers 27, Bengals 24
The choice: Steelers +3.5

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

• Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubotry for free)

While their 3-5 record doesn’t exactly scream playoff contenders, first place in the NFC South is on the line in this game. Bryce Young doesn’t have the best history against the Saints, as the Panthers quarterback is just 1-5 against his division opponent in his career. That said, I think there is a window here for him to get a rare win against New Orleans on Sunday.

Although his numbers have declined since his strong start to the season, Young started to look more like himself in the loss to Denver, completing 71.7% of his passes to go along with three touchdowns. The Saints secondary is allowing 7.3 yards per attempt so far this season, which is tied for fifth in the league. Their passer rating allowed of 99.5 is also the seventh highest in the NFL. It’s not as daunting a matchup for Young, who has had to face Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Denver during Carolina’s recent three-game losing streak. I like that it bounces here.

Meanwhile, New Orleans is 1-4 in a row and 0-5 ATS at home this season, so the Superdome hasn’t been too friendly so far.

Projected score: Panthers 24, Saints 21
The choice: Panthers +2.5

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons

Similar to what we discussed with Cincinnati, the Falcons are scheduled to play immediately the following week after an international game in Madrid last Sunday. That could only put them further behind the ball against a Chiefs team that earned a 35-12 win over the Jets last week. Patrick Mahomes scared us all in the middle of this game after injuring his elbow, but it’s not bad enough to keep him out of this game.

Mahomes has thrown five touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two games, but his lack of threat on the field has been noticeable. He’s averaging an NFL-low 5.6 air yards per attempt this season as the Chiefs have really looked for passes to gain yards after the catch. Well, they just got some help in that regard from Josh Downs, who they signed before the deadline in a trade with the Colts. The wideout has a knack for creating separation and now has a capable quarterback to deliver the football to him, so Kansas City could see quick dividends from this addition. This is especially true against a Falcons secondary that was just lit up by the Bengals last week and just traded star safety Jessie Bates III to the Jaguars.

Atlanta is also 0-4 in a row and ATS in its last four games against the AFC.

Projected Score: Chiefs 26, Falcons 20
The choice: Chefs -3

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans

• Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubotry for free)

While they will not play this weekendJacksonville went all-in at the deadline, making trades to acquire Jessie Bates III, Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux to bolster its defense for a potential run to the Super Bowl. On the other hand, Tennessee has traded away pieces, including standout safety Amani Hooker and, a few weeks ago, defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. That’s a lot of talent on defense, which doesn’t bode well against Trevor Lawrence, who is making a sneaky MVP push. Entering Week 10, his passer rating of 111.7 ranks second among quarterbacks who have started at least eight games, trailing only Burrow.

As that double-digit gap suggests, this is a David versus Goliath matchup, and it’s hard to imagine the underdog keeping this thing close. Even before making those trades, Jacksonville’s defense was allowing 15.1 points per game (second-best in the NFL) and also allowed 20 points or fewer in six straight road games. Tony Pollard, who remained with the team until the deadline, has been a bright spot in Tennessee’s offense in recent weeks, but could be waived here. The Jaguars are allowing 3.7 yards per carry this season, along with an average of 89.3 rushing yards allowed per game, which ranks fifth lowest in the NFL.

An explosion is brewing in this matchup in favor of Jacksonville, which is 13-3 against the spread in its last 16 games with a differential of +16.3 points per game.

Projected score: Jaguars 34, Titans 16
The choice: Jaguars -10.5

Seattle Seahawks vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Welcome to the NFL, Fernando Mendoza. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft is set to make his first career start following the Raiders’ trade of Kirk Cousins, who started the first nine games of the year, to Minnesota before the deadline. It will be a baptism of fire for the Indiana product as he faces a Seattle defense that is among the best in the NFL. The Seahawks are allowing a league-low 244.2 total yards per game entering Week 10, along with an average of 18.0 points per game allowed, tied for fourth. This simply seems like too high a mountain for Mendoza to climb right off the bat.

Meanwhile, the Raiders defense won’t do their young quarterback any favors. They are currently on a streak of six straight games in which they have allowed more than 30 points, which is tied for the longest streak ever in a season. So even with Sam Darnold (quad) sidelined and backup Drew Lock ready to play despite an oblique injury, Seattle’s offense should find plenty of scoring opportunities. This could be a make-or-break game for Zach Charbonnet after leading the team with 16 carries last week for 77 yards, while the Raiders are allowing an NFL-high 5.0 yards per carry.

Given that Mendoza is starting, it’s also worth pointing out that the No. 1 overall quarterbacks are 1-15-1 in a row and 3-14 against the spread in their first career start since 2003.

Projected score: Seahawks 30, Raiders 20
The choice: Seahawks -6.5

Rest of the group

Patriots at Lions (in Munich)
Projected Score: Lions 30, Patriots 20
The choice: Lions -2.5

Invoices at Jets
Projected Score: Bills 33, Jets 21
The choice: Bills -8.5

Texans at Browns
Projected score: Texans 23, Browns 20
The choice: Browns +4.5

Dolphins at Colts
Projected Score: Colts 27, Dolphins 17
The choice: Foals -3.5

Vikings at Packers
Projected Score: Vikings 24, Packers 23
The choice: Vikings +2.5

Rams among the Cardinals
Projected Score: Rams 27, Cardinals 17
The choice: Rams -9.5

49ers at the Cowboys
Projected Score: 49ers 33, Cowboys 24
The choice: 49ers -4.5

Chargers at Ravens (Monday)
Projected score: Ravens 24, Chargers 17
The choice: Ravens -4.5