Legality, cost… what you need to know about the $5,000 promised by Donald Trump to Americans

Donald Trump promised on Wednesday, September 9, a “dividend” of $5,000 to each adult American citizen in the event of a Republican majority in Congress following the November legislative vote. Aside from the use of proceeds from customs duties, the president did not give details on the financing of this commitment, which raises questions about its feasibility and legality.

Is this legal?

U.S. federal law prohibits anyone from “making or offering payment” to a voter “to vote or not to vote, or to vote for or against a candidate.” A willful violation is punishable by two years in prison and a fine of $250,000.

Donald Trump’s promise could escape this framework insofar as it concerns all Americans, regardless of their vote in the legislative election.

This payment would nevertheless require a vote by Congress.

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At the start of 2025, the Republican billionaire had already put forward the idea of ​​an exceptional payment of $5,000 to American taxpayers, financed by savings made on federal government spending. The project never materialized.

In November 2025, he announced that a “dividend” of $2,000 would be allocated to each of his constituents (subject to means conditions) thanks to the proceeds from customs duties, a guarantee which, again, remained a dead letter.

How much would it cost?

There are approximately 277 million adults 18 and older in the United States. Paying them each $5,000 would therefore amount to spending $1,384 billion.

If we only take into account American citizens, Donald Trump having referred to “Americans”, the total would be reduced to approximately 1.27 trillion.

This would be equivalent to 18% of the US federal budget for 2025, significantly more than US military spending (13%).

During the Covid-19 pandemic, the American Congress voted to allocate means-tested support funds to individuals, which reached, in three waves, $814 billion.

Could customs duties be enough?

Not in the short term. In 2025, customs duties brought the United States $195 billion, far from the amount needed to finance the “dividend” announced by the American president.

Especially since under a decision of the Supreme Court, part of this product had to be reimbursed to companies. As a result, the government remitted more than it collected in customs duties between May and July.

The payment of the “dividend” would accentuate even more clearly the imbalance of the American federal budget, whose deficit has already reached 2,000 billion over the first eleven months of the fiscal year (closed at the end of September).

Can the “dividend” further accelerate inflation?

Distributing money directly to individuals mechanically increases demand for goods and services without affecting supply, an imbalance which generally results in an increase in prices.

However, inflation is already at a high level in the United States, at 3.4% over one year in July, well above the 2% target set by the American central bank, the Fed.

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According to a study from its branch in Saint-Louis, the economic support measures taken by the American government during the Covid-19 pandemic added an additional 2.6 percentage points to inflation.

With AFP