Louisiana’s U.S. Senate race enters final stretch tighter than expected – Louisiana Illuminator

The U.S. Senate race in Louisiana enters its final days much more competitive than many expected a few weeks ago.

Political experts in both parties said U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow, R-Baton Rouge, is still the heavy favorite to win the Nov. 3 election. But Democratic candidate Jamie Davis, a farmer and former Tensas Parish police juror, could finish close behind her.

In Louisiana, where former Gov. John Bel Edwards is the only Democrat to win statewide office in the past decade, a competitive U.S. Senate race seemed unlikely as recently as September. But the combination of strong Black turnout in early voting, better-than-expected fundraising for Davis and national sentiment favoring Democrats has changed that outlook.

“Is it exaggerated? Yes, but it’s less exaggerated than it was a week ago in people’s minds,” James Carville, the famed Cajun political consultant who helped Bill Clinton win the 1992 presidential election, said of Davis’s improving chances.

Letlow is still confident she will win the race.

“Louisianaians know that she has secured hundreds of millions for our communities, fought for parents’ rights to education, and worked to lower costs for working families, a record that stands in stark contrast to her opponent who would be nothing more than a rubber stamp for Chuck Schumer and the radical left,” Letlow’s campaign said in a written statement Wednesday.

Black voter turnout

Turnout in Louisiana’s seven-day early voting period for the Nov. 3 election was the highest ever for a non-presidential campaign cycle, according to John Couvillon, a Louisiana pollster who traditionally works with Republican candidates.

Nearly 521,000 ballots were cast in person and by absentee voters from Oct. 20 to 27, according to the secretary of state’s office. For comparison, the early voting period for the 2022 U.S. Senate race, which Republican John Kennedy won over Democrats Gary Chambers and Luike Mixon, saw 363,000 ballots cast.

A Hart Research poll conducted in mid-September surveyed 500 likely voters and showed Letlow with a 48 to 44 percent advantage over Davis. It’s a margin that Couvillon and other observers say will narrow based on early voting data.

What’s probably encouraging for Davis and other Democrats is that turnout among black voters, who make up the backbone of the state party, was higher than usual, at 34 percent, for the early voting period of the November election.

In the two decades since in-person early voting began in Louisiana, Black people have only made up a larger share of early voters than in the previous four election cycles, Couvillon said on social media. These include the presidential elections in which Barack Obama or Donald Trump were on the ticket and the party’s primary elections in May for this year’s U.S. Senate race, he said.

Black voters have been more motivated to go to the polls since April, when the U.S. Supreme Court issued a ruling weakening protections for minority voting districts, said U.S. Rep. Cleo Fields, D-Baton Rouge.

The move led Gov. Jeff Landry and Republican state lawmakers to rework Louisiana’s congressional map to eliminate one of its two majority-black districts in the United States. The lost seat is held by Fields, who is black and has decided not to run again in the 6th District now that he favors the GOP under his new lines.

“People feel like their votes are being disenfranchised and they are motivated to go to the polls and vote,” Fields said.

Increased early turnout among black voters does not always translate into electoral victories for Democrats. For example, Trump still won Louisiana with 58% of the vote in 2020.

That’s why several political consultants continue to believe Letlow will win the race against Davis, despite encouraging early voting results for Democrats.

“I don’t think it’s enough to win, but I think he’ll definitely do a lot better than people thought,” said Roy Fletcher, a Republican Party political adviser who helped win Gov. Mike Foster’s election in 1995.

Better-than-expected fundraising for Democrats

Letlow’s campaign raised significantly more money than Davis’, with $7 million compared to $5 million. That’s to be expected, political consultants said, given that Letlow is a member of Congress and Davis has only held elected office at the local level.

Letlow had to spend more money to get to the general election. Unlike Davis, she had to beat incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy of Baton Rouge in a primary election to secure her party’s nomination. Cassidy had far more resources than any of the Democrats Davis faced in his primary.

Davis’ campaign also had more cash on hand than Letlow during the final two weeks of the election. As of Oct. 15, the Democrat had $1.2 million in his campaign account, compared to Letlow’s $443,000, according to their most recent federal campaign finance reports.

The Letlow campaign made a $900,000 television ad buy just before the Federal Election Commission’s October 15 report deadline, which could have depleted the campaign’s reserves.

Davis’ campaign has touted his financial advantage as a sign he’s gaining momentum.

“The fact that Jamie Davis … enters the final week of this race with more money in hand than his opponent tells you everything you need to know about the enthusiasm on the ground in Louisiana,” Lawrence Mason, Davis’ communications director, said in a written statement Wednesday.

Is Mississippi more competitive?

Although local political consultants call the Louisiana Senate race competitive, national parties and political donors haven’t paid much attention.

Most of the major political groups that spend money on competitive congressional elections across the country have yet to spend money in Louisiana.

“I’ve been banging my head against the wall trying to get national money here. It’s almost impossible,” Carville said.

However, this could change in the coming days. Trump announced Wednesday evening that he planned to host a “tele-event,” typically an online event that would not require him to travel, for Letlow on Monday, the day before the election.

Nonetheless, Louisiana Democratic Party Chairman Randal Gaines said he has also made several requests for help to his national party and donors in Louisiana, without success so far.

“They have the perspective that the Deep South is the future of the party,” Gaines said. “If they want to make this a reality, they need to invest money here. »

The situation is different in Mississippi, where Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith faces Democrat Scott Colom, the district attorney, in her race for U.S. Senate. Republicans and Democrats are both investing money in advertising this race ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

Several high-profile politicians — including Trump, former President Bill Clinton and former Vice President Kamala Harris — visited Mississippi in person to rally voters.