Towels and caps for sale depicting Brazilian presidential candidates Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro are seen in a residential area of Brasilia September 11, 2026. Brazil will hold presidential elections on October 4, 2026.
Sergio Lima/AFP via Getty Images
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Sergio Lima/AFP via Getty Images
RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil’s presidential election is a rematch of the country’s bitter 2022 contest, but with a twist. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of the man he narrowly beat four years ago, Jair Bolsonaro.
Flávio, a 45-year-old senator, is carrying his father’s political movement into Sunday’s elections. Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup to reverse that loss. His son promised to forgive him if he was elected.
The younger Bolsonaro calls himself “a more moderate Bolsonaro,” but has expressed few political differences with his father. He pledges to pardon his father for his coup conviction, has sowed doubt about human responsibility for climate change and favors making it easier for Brazilians to buy weapons.
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth presidential term. The outcome will determine whether Brazil remains in Lula’s left-wing government or returns the Bolsonaro movement to the presidency.
The issue extends well beyond the two families.
The next president is expected to appoint four of the Supreme Court’s eleven justices, giving the winner significant influence over the Court for years to come.
The next president will also shape Brazil’s economy and environmental policy, its relationship with the United States and the future of its young democracy.
Here’s what you need to know about Brazil’s October 4 elections.
Elections could extend until the end of October
Polls suggest a tight race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro among the presidential candidates. Federal and state legislative seats and state governorships are also up for grabs. If no candidate for president or governor obtains more than 50% of the valid votes on Sunday, the two candidates with the most votes will continue until the runoff on October 25.
Brazil uses electronic voting machines and typically counts results within a few hours. By Sunday evening, it will likely be clear who is headed to a runoff — and how each candidate performed in the first round.
The Bolsonaro name carries a lot of baggage
Jair Bolsonaro narrowly lost the 2022 election to Lula, then became the central figure in the attempt to reject the result. He is currently serving a sentence for plotting a coup to reverse that loss, a plan that included a plan to assassinate Lula, according to police.
The younger Bolsonaro has made clear he intends to stand by his father. His promise to pardon Jair if elected turned the former president’s legal fate into a campaign issue — and raised broader questions about what a Bolsonaro return to power would mean for Brazil’s democratic institutions.
Lula was jailed for corruption and money laundering in 2018, but the Supreme Court overturned his convictions in 2021 on procedural grounds. The episode remains a point of contention in Brazilian politics. His supporters point to other aspects of his record, including poverty reduction and efforts to protect the Amazon rainforest.
Both political camps inspire extremely loyal supporters – and fierce opposition. Polarization has remained high since the political and economic crisis of the mid-2010s, after which, said Federal University of Paraná political scientist Fábio Vasconcellos, “it became very difficult for a president to achieve the highest approval ratings of previous decades.”
Domestic issues could influence vote
For all the attention on the Bolsonaro family and the battle for Brazil’s political direction, voters are also focused on issues much closer to home.
Insecurity is a major problem for voters. Bolsonaro supports a tough approach to fighting crime that he said could include joint work with the U.S. military, while Lula has favored operations targeting gang financiers and expressed skepticism about the influence of outside countries on Brazil’s security policy.
Voters also worry about corruption. Media and police investigations in recent weeks have exposed allegedly inappropriate ties between a jailed former banker known for corruption and Supreme Court justices and other high-profile political figures. Bolsonaro himself took money from the banker and is under investigation for money laundering, which he denies.
And voters are worried about Brazil’s economy. Lula’s embrace of public spending helped boost economic growth early in his government, but growth has slowed since.
Bolsonaro says Brazil’s huge national debt is holding back the economy and a top campaign adviser has pledged to reduce it by cutting spending, following the example of Argentina’s Javier Milei.
Trump weighs heavily on the vote
Supporters of opposition presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro march with an effigy of U.S. President Donald Trump holding a doll depicting Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as a prisoner, during an Independence Day event in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Monday, September 7, 2026, the month before the general election.
André Penner/AP
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André Penner/AP
The United States has become an unusually visible presence in this year’s campaign. Rallies in support of Flávio featured American flags, reflecting his promise to align more closely with the Trump administration.
The September cover of a major Brazilian political magazine illustrated perceived U.S. interest in the elections with an image of a giant U.S. spacecraft flying over a small Brazilian voting site.
The Bolsonaros have sought close ties to Trump for years.
Flávio’s brother, Eduardo, lives in the United States, where he has urged Trump to take action against the Supreme Court judges who oversaw his father’s coup trial. Last year, Trump cited the lawsuit to justify a 40 percent increase in tariffs on Brazil.
Lula, for his part, rebuffed pressure from Trump. He negotiated with the US president a reduction in certain customs duties while asserting that Brazil’s judicial independence was non-negotiable. Lula also criticized U.S. policies toward Venezuela, including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January.
In July, Lula publicly accused Washington of trying to interfere in Brazil’s elections. Brazilian officials said U.S. officials planned to travel to Brazil to sow doubt about the reliability of Brazilian voting machines. The State Department called the accusation a “baseless lie.”
This relationship could become particularly serious if the elections are close.
Yuri Sanches, head of political analysis at Brazilian polling and analysis company AtlasIntel, said a narrow victory for Lula could prompt Bolsonaro supporters to contest the result.
“If Lula wins the election by a small margin, then it is almost certain that some Bolsonaro supporters will question the results,” Sanches said.
“They could ask for help from Trump, from Rubio, from the United States, saying that the elections were rigged, that the electoral system, the electronic voting machines are not reliable.”
A Flávio victory would also give greater political clout to the conservative movement that has gained ground in South America in recent years.
This is a sensitive moment for Brazilian democracy
Brazil emerged from military dictatorship in 1985 and has since become one of the world’s largest democracies. According to V-Dem, an academic democracy research institute at the University of Gothenburg, Brazil ranks 28th in its liberal democracy index, compared to 51st for the United States. The index measures factors such as control of executive power.
Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro’s prosecution and conviction in 2025 for coup plotting marked a significant test for its democratic institutions. The commitment of his son, Flávio, to grant him pardon has since raised questions about the sustainability of these institutions.
But the challenges extend beyond Brazil. As Latin America’s largest economy and most populous country, Brazil belongs to the G20, a forum of major economies, and BRICS, a bloc of emerging powers.
The broader BRICS countries account for almost half of the world’s population and about 39% of global GDP, measured in purchasing power parity.
The election will therefore be closely watched, not only for what it says about Brazilian democracy, but also for what it could mean for the country’s role in global trade, climate policy, security and the balance between the United States and the broader South.
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