The big picture: Democrats have their largest lead of the year over Republicans, 57% to 31%, in the generic congressional vote, according to a new poll from Equis Research.
- In the neighborhoods of the battlefields, Democrats lead 62% to 38% among likely Latino voters in two-way races, ahead of the party’s 2022 level of 57%.
- It’s way above the 49% of Latinos who voted Democratic in 2024, but below the 67% who supported Democrats in 2018, according to Equis, a leading authority on Latino voting behavior.
Zoom: Republicans were convinced that Trump’s undeniable gains in 2024 represented the start of a real realignment, but poll after poll this year has indicated that Latino voters have not found a permanent home within the GOP.
- In Florida, Republican Rep. María Elvira Salazar addressed Trump directly in a campaign ad about his crackdown on immigration.
- The Equis investigation, conducted from September 23 to October 1. 2, provides further evidence of declining support for Trump among Latino voters.
- Trump’s popularity rating stands at just 30%, compared to 65% disapproval. This represents a deficit of 35 points – and a new low in the Equis surveys.
Between the lines: Economic concerns – and rising gas prices – are driving much of the discontent, particularly when it comes to the cost of living.
- 76% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s management of the cost of living, which 52% of respondents identify as their main problem.
- 54% trust Democrats more on the economy, compared to 33% who trust the Republicans.
- This gives the Democrats a 21-point advantage over the economy, compared to just 7 points in February.
The bottom line: Latino voters helped bring Trump back to the White House. The Equis investigation is the latest indication that they could help Democrats win back Congress.
Note: The Equis survey was conducted from September 23 to October 1. 2 by phone and text with 1,800 registered voters who identify as Hispanic or Latino nationwide.
- The sample was weighted to match the composition of registered voters modeled as Latinos by state, gender, age, education, voting history, voter registration date, VCH score, and 2024 Vote Recall.
Gn usa
