A “blue wave” seems more and more likely next Tuesday.
Polling expert Nate Silver believes the midterm elections could be so disastrous for Donald Trump that the results would effectively end his presidency.
In an interview on The Ezra Klein Podcastmoderated by the New York Times columnist, Silver was asked why he thinks the November 3 election could be in part “momentous.”
“If the election goes pretty much like the polls say, then in some ways it would mark the end of the Trump era,” said Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and author of the Silver Bulletin Substack.
“He’ll be president for two more years. But once the 2028 election campaign begins, and if Trump has a bad night, as the polls show, then he’s a super lame duck.”
Donald Trump risks living his last two years in the White House with Democrats controlling Congress.
Democrats are already widely expected to regain control of the House next week, as the ruling party historically suffers significant losses in the lower house in midterm elections and the Republican Party currently holds only a razor-thin majority.
Democrats have indicated they would launch impeachment attempts against Trump and other administration figures if they regain control of the House.
Intense voter backlash against Trump’s second term — including his war on Iran, soaring gas prices and the fallout from the botched release of Jeffrey Epstein’s files — means the Senate also plays a role for Democrats.
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To flip control, Democrats will need to win at least four Republican-held Senate seats on Nov. 3 while retaining the seats they currently hold.
James Talarico could be the first Democrat to win a Texas Senate race in decades next week.
RONALDO SCHEMIDT/AFP via Getty Images
According to Silver Bulletin polling averages, Democratic candidates are ahead in several crucial Senate races, including in traditionally Republican strongholds like Texas and Kansas.
Democrats also lead in other hotly contested races against incumbent Republicans in Ohio, Alaska and Maine, while Senate races in key swing states Georgia and Michigan are expected to be won by Senators Jon Ossoff and Abdul El-Sayed, respectively.
The Silver Bulletin’s generic vote average shows Democrats with a double-digit lead over Republicans (51.8 percent to 42.3 percent), further suggesting that the Republican Party will suffer an electoral wipeout on November 3.
“President Trump and this administration’s understatement has proven the pundits and pollsters wrong time and time again,” White House spokesperson Ingle Davis told the Daily Beast of Silver.
Elsewhere during his appearance on The Ezra Klein PodcastSilver suggested the country could be on the verge of something bigger than a “generational shift” in power in Congress.
“I don’t really see how much of a major issue AI is in this election — I think, maybe more than people think — but it could be the biggest issue of 2028,” Silver said. “I think you would expect this, along with the economy, to be the biggest problem of 2028.”
The Daily Beast has contacted the White House for comment.
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