NATO yesterday responded to the Kremlin’s warning that Moscow was prepared to use its entire arsenal of weapons to defend Kaliningrad if the alliance tried to blockade the region.
NATO spokeswoman Allison Hart said the alliance had responded to Russia’s informal diplomatic document. A military source separately confirmed to the rapporteur, formerly known as Euractiv, that the document concerns Kaliningrad.
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“Russia’s reliance on hybrid tactics is a sign of desperation. But we will not let that dissuade us from our support for Ukraine,” Hart said, adding that “we (NATO) have what it takes to defend every inch of allied territory and remain strong, ready and able to counter any threat.”
She reiterated that NATO is exclusively a defensive alliance and that none of its exercises or other activities pose a risk to any part of Russia, while also condemning the “threat of use of force, including any irresponsible nuclear rhetoric.”
Why Kaliningrad is important
The enclave is wedged between EU and NATO members Lithuania and Poland, making it a persistent security problem for the alliance.
Located approximately 360 kilometers (224 miles) from the Russian mainland, it has no land connection with the rest of Russia and is only connected to it by sea.
The territory was formerly the German city of Königsberg, capital of East Prussia. The Soviet Union seized it at the end of World War II, expelled the German population and renamed it in 1946.
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As a key military installation on the Baltic, the city and its port were closed to foreigners throughout the Soviet era. This changed with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, which physically cut off Kaliningrad from Russia once Lithuania regained its independence.
Moscow then sought to open up the region economically, transforming it into a free trade zone in 1992 and a special economic zone in 1996 with privileges for foreign investors, according to AFP.
Its value for Moscow now remains essentially military, according to the International Crisis Group.
Kaliningrad is Russia’s only ice-free port on the Baltic and is home to the headquarters of the Russian Baltic Fleet. Russia has also deployed Iskander tactical missiles there, with a range of about 500 kilometers (310 miles), the U.S. Naval Institute reported.
Meanwhile, NATO has long feared that Russia could also station non-strategic nuclear weapons in the enclave.
For NATO, the biggest concern remains the Suwałki Gap, a roughly 65-kilometer (40-mile) stretch of Polish-Lithuanian border that separates Kaliningrad from Belarus – one of Russia’s closest allies.
Despite presenting itself as neutral in the war, Belarus supplies Russia with components needed to manufacture weapons, while also providing the territory from which Russia launches some attacks against Ukraine.
If direct conflict breaks out, Russian forces from Belarus and Kaliningrad could attempt to seize the corridor and cut off the Baltic states from allied reinforcements.
Crisis Group warns that Russia’s Baltic Fleet, missiles, air defenses and ground forces in Kaliningrad could also be used to deny NATO access to the Baltic Sea and disrupt air operations.
At the same time, the position of the enclave leaves it exposed. With Finland and Sweden joining NATO in 2023 and 2024, the Baltic Sea is now almost entirely surrounded by alliance members, except for Kaliningrad and the Russian coastline near St. Petersburg.
In June 2022, Lithuania halted the rail transit of steel and other EU-sanctioned goods to the enclave, a move that Moscow called a “blockade” and threatened to respond to, according to LRT.
Vilnius insisted it was only enforcing EU sanctions, but the impasse was eased the following month when the European Commission ruled that sanctioned goods, except weapons, could continue to pass through Lithuania by rail.
At the time, analysts warned that Russia’s calling the restrictions a blockade, a term with military connotations, could be used to justify military action.
The latest threat from Moscow
In its statement, the Russian embassy said it had communicated its position to the NATO International Staff and the Belgian Foreign Ministry, accusing the alliance and its members of pursuing an “aggressive policy.”
“We emphasized that Russia has the necessary means to repel potential aggression and is ready to deploy its entire available arsenal of weapons if NATO countries attempt to isolate the Kaliningrad region from the rest of our country,” the statement said.
The embassy urged NATO members to refrain from “further rhetoric and escalatory actions in order to avoid full-scale confrontation,” without specifying what actions prompted the warning.
The warning is the latest in a series of threats by senior Russian officials against Ukraine’s Western allies, raising fears that the Kremlin is seeking possible justification for a direct attack on the Baltic states.
Dmitry Medvedev, former president and current vice-president of the Russian Security Council, asserted on September 11 that Lithuania would “disappear from the world map” if it lifted its long-standing ban on nuclear weapons.
He also said NATO would not invoke Article 5 to defend the country because it would mean a “global catastrophe.”
Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, for his part, dismissed European warnings of a Russian threat as a deliberate escalation and “provocation,” insisting that Moscow has no real incentive to attack Europe.
Moments later, during his broader remarks on Friday, September 25, he turned to a long-standing Kremlin grievance: the treatment of Russian-speaking minorities in the Baltic states, which the Kremlin also used to justify launching a full-scale invasion against Ukraine.
Around the same time, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia could directly attack another European country, as Moscow seeks to break Western unity and distract from its battlefield losses.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, for his part, reversed the situation. In his latest press conference at the 81st United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York, he said European calls to prepare for possible war with Russia could become a “self-fulfilling prophecy”.
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